How to catch these four falling knives (GRMN, MELI, FSLR, EXPE)


Knives Experience has taught me that catching falling knives in the stock market is incredibly dangerous, but some of these speculative names are really beginning to test my resolve. So I thought I'd share them with you.

Investors have been punishing these plays not because business has fallen off a cliff, but because they are some of the most speculative stocks around -- other than penny stocks -- and in this kind of market environment, investors prefer safety. That creates opportunity, if you're willing to take on some risk. After all, these companies still have solid business fundamentals, so there will be a bottom somewhere, and I think we're getting very close to it here. For now, put these on your watchlist, for when they do bounce, they're going to bounce hard, think 15-20% within days.

Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) -- At $64, this navigation system maker is down 35% on the year, but revenue growth is far greater than its current P/E of 15. Sure, there's some margin concerns, but the chart has solid support at $60.


Mercadolibre (NASDAQ: MELI) -- It seems as if it was just a few weeks ago when this stock was being crowned the eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) of Latin America and the stock was making new highs. Oh wait, it was -- the stock has nearly completed a roundtrip from $40 to $80 back to $45 all within one month! Sure, it may be hurt by a global slowdown, but its current forward P/E of 80 is a lot better than 160, and the chart has solid support at $40.

First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) -- At $167, this solar leader is more than $115 off its December highs! Oil prices are down and solar stocks have become quite unfashionable, but this company's business is still booming. It's got support in the low $150s.

Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) -- At $23, this online travel company's stock is down 27% on the year, but has support at $20. Due to the likely decrease in consumer travel spending, this is my least favorite to play for a bounce.

Timothy Sykes writes the blog timothysykes.com, is a former hedge fund manager, star of the TV show
Wall Street Warriors and author of the book, An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund. DISCLOSURE: At time of publication, writer held no positions in stocks mentioned.

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DJIA+6.5112,890.46
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S&P 500+1.991,351.95

Last updated: February 10, 2012: 07:57 AM

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