In the midst of all the bad news it's hard to imagine the stock market ending the year higher than it started. However, that is entirely possible and probably much better than a 50/50 bet. If you want to play it safe consider buying into an index fund or exchange traded funds (ETFs) instead of banking on individual stocks.
For broad coverage you cannot beat the Vanguard Total Stock Market or the Total International Stock funds with the lowest fees and longest history in this area. I think it has also been generally accepted investing strategy over the last few decades that in bearish markets there is a run to quality and "guns and butter" stocks. If you were to follow this old adage you would be considering three sectors, healthcare, defense and consumer staples.
Mutual funds and ETFs (with less history) are less volatile and offer greater diversification than most investors could achieve, and at much lower cost. If you dollar cost average over the next few months you should also be able to smooth out some bumps in the current market.
When the political machine goes to work to juice the economy the market has most often responded positively. That does not mean it's smart for the country, but since when is a politicians first thought about the country.
The No. 1 campaign issue by a large margin is, and will remain, the economy. Politicians being what they are, somehow, some way, are going to conjure up a little mystical economic fuel in the next few weeks and months so that during the latter stages of the presidential campaign any of us entering the voting booth are not dwelling on our employment situation and empty wallets from outside our recently foreclosed on home.
If you ask me specifically where the major indices will end up, the answer is that I don't know. Some of my colleagues and many media pundits love to throw out numbers as if they had a link to the almighty. That is an exercise in futility. What is more important to remember is... what are the greatest likelihoods and how can I benefit from them with the least risk? For the average person that is going to be funds and ETFs focused on the broad market or sectors that remain strong in troubled times.
To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value and Serious Money.
DISCLOSURE: I own shares in Vanguard Mutal Funds & ETFs as well as those of other companies.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-18-2008 @ 10:43PM
Opportunity said...
Lets face it, the stock market is like a great ocean. Sometimes calm and sometimes stormy and turbulant. The key is to ride it out without getting shipwrecked. These days one needs a very seaworthy vessel to sail on to wealth and prosperty.
1-20-2008 @ 9:11PM
Mr. noitall said...
I would think that by now most of your average American investors already own too much of these funds or ETF's that track the market. I would suggest that they really diversify by buying GLD, SLV, & TIP. And also look for other alternative investments. The "last few decades" are over, we shouldn't look to the past and think that all we have to do is "ride it out" like Opportunity suggests. I think the market has once again become a place for risk taking, it's not the "sure thing " that has been promoted to be by the "buy & hold " crowd.