Executives at big tech companies say that they see no recession, at least in their businesses. They seem to have at least some support for their thinking. According to the FT, "Tech executives also point to their broader diversification. While emerging markets represent 10-15 percent of the revenues of most big tech companies, they have come to account for a far larger part of their growth."
IBM (NYSE: IBM) turned in strong results. So did enterprise software company SAP (NYSE: SAP). But a quarter does not a trend make, even if forecasts for next year are good. A forecast is only as good as the next quarter.
Business in Asia is not immune from a slowdown. It may not be evident today, but there are already some signs. After tremendous increases last year, stock markets in China are not rising much now. Investors in that market are sending signals that their outlook may not be rosy.
A sharp slowdown in the US and Europe is bound to hit Asia because exports from those countries into the developed world will drop. China's economy is built to "hyper-growth" so a step down in expansion could bring financial, real estate, and economic markets there down with a crash.
Asia will grow until its doesn't. That may come sooner that many tech executives believe and would leave their growth plans in the mud.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-21-2008 @ 10:02AM
Richard Trabucco said...
IBM's Jan 17 & Jan 18 2008 SEC filings "press releases" start with the following statements:
Press Release:
The following statement on Page 1: “Revenues were flat excluding the year-to-year impact of the Printing Systems Division divestiture in June 2007.”
Slides:
On Slide 3 (4Q 2007 Summary), the following information: “Revenue flat*”
Considering revenue was flat for the 4th quarter, approx. 5% of revenue was due to currency exchange (not growth), and the Asian and European economies and markets are weakening appreciably, (which constitue 50% of IBM's business), it's hard to see how IBM can forecast such a rosy outlook for 2008.