If you can't pay back the bank, the bank takes your house or your car. If a stock you own loses its value, there's no collateral you can go after to cushion your loss. This is why Bush's debt recession will be far far worse than Clinton's equity one.
The stock market in the last year of George Bush's term is following a pattern that reminds me of the last year of Bill Clinton's. The Clinton market tumble -- where the NASDAQ fell in March 2000, rose through September 2000, and then began a straight down plunge through January 2001 -- preceded a brief recession in 2001. But I think that the Bush recession -- following Dow and broader market quakes in March 2007, August 2007, and the 14% decline since the October peak -- will be much much worse.
The reason? Clinton's recession was driven largely by a collapse in equity prices, while Bush's will be driven by an implosion in the value of debt. Before focusing on what Bush's recession might look like, it's worth remembering that Clinton's was driven by the collapse of the NASDAQ as the dot-com bubble burst. It also involved debt -- $1 trillion worth of borrowing by fiber optic network builders like Global Crossing that went bankrupt when they couldn't pay their debts as their customers, the dot-coms, went belly up.
For all those individual investors who got burned by the dot-com bust, after the dust had settled they had lost lots of money in their stock market accounts, but most people still had jobs, houses, and cars. And Clinton left the Federal budget in surplus with the national debt declining to $5 trillion. Bush used that recession to sell $1.3 trillion in tax cuts and to lower interest rates to 1%. With the $2.4 trillion worth of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Federal budget went into deficit and the national debt ballooned to $9.2 trillion.
One effect of Bush's lower interest rates was to temporarily revive the economy by making it cheap for consumers to buy houses. Thanks to securitization, mortgages could be originated, packaged and sold as securities such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) to investors around the world. The fees for closing CDO deals were so high that when the supply of credit-worthy borrowers ran out, the Securitization Industrial Complex (SIC) found a way to make loans to people who could not afford them -- 47% of the $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages were made to people who did not document their income.
We now know that the CDO cancer has spread to Wall Street banks like Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: C), which yesterday revealed, according to MarketBeat, that it was valuing these CDOs at 25 cents to 60 cents on the dollar. This means that wherever CDOs lie, there will be a huge capital shortfall as their holders must write down the value of the CDOs while begging for capital.
Meanwhile, consumers -- no longer able to borrow against their homes to pay their bills -- will start to default on their $2.46 trillion worth of debt in the form of credit card loans, auto loans, student loans and others. The two million families that will lose their houses to foreclosure by 2009 will put further downward pressure on housing prices. And as consumer demand falls off, companies will see their revenues drop. This will put pressure on the $3.7 trillion corporate bond market -- particularly the part that financed the formerly booming leveraged buyout market.
Unlike Clinton's equity recession, Bush's debt recession will be more demanding. When equity holders lose value in their stock, they have no recourse to get their money back. But lenders are different -- they need to be paid back. And if the lenders aren't paid back, they take possession of the collateral -- the house or the car. Moreover, regulators demand that CDO owners write down the value of their lousy investments and raise capital to make up for that loss of value in order to have enough capital to backstop their liabilities.
If layoffs start to spread throughout the economy, consumers will have to cut back on spending. And they'll also stop paying back the loans they've been using to keep up with rising gasoline and food prices. This will create a cycle of bank writedowns and capital shortfalls that will make your head spin.
If you need money this year that's now invested in stocks, use today's bounce to sell and deposit it somewhere safe.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.
Facebook's IPO Debacle, Day 3: Un-Friended and Dis-Liked on Wall…
Former Olympic Rower Turned to Minimalism to Pay Down $82,000 in Debt


Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
1-18-2008 @ 4:01PM
mmac1883 said...
This credit crisis has come primarily from the state of California and Florida. It is easy to blame George W. but he didn't make one loan of the 47% that went to people not credit worthy enough to receive them in the first place. Why aren't we examining the billions of wasted dollars going to illegal aliens through health care and welfare payments, as well as the trillions being wasted on welfare itself? And now is a great time to ask the question, when will the environment wackos take responsibility for the high gas prices as our country's ability to produce more supply has been eliminated due to no new refineries being built over the last 40 years as China and India are gobbling up supplies without any restrictions on polution. For all you Bush bashers and haters, when he is gone, the current situation will still be here as it was before he was elected. A bloat of able bodied welfare recipients raping our govenment coffers, a spiraling polluting economy in India and China and our country being influenced by a liberal Left media that continues to place blame on George Bush. Wake up, Government is the Problem as President Regan's policies proved correct to create the largest economic boom in our countries history. Lower taxes and government handouts to able bodied people, placing an importance on education and productivity. Build more refineries now because we have an abundance of oil in our own country and if given the opportunity to drill and produce it would eliminate our debt and economic struggles overnight with the increase of blue collar jobs that would be generated that are being outsourced to other global countries.
1-19-2008 @ 10:46AM
lttldblj said...
Well Said
1-19-2008 @ 4:29PM
bruce said...
Build more refineries now because we have an abundance of oil in our own country and if given the opportunity to drill and produce it would eliminate our debt and economic struggles overnight with the increase of blue collar jobs that would be generated that are being outsourced to other global countries.
Reply
right damn on
1-18-2008 @ 4:19PM
jetncat said...
But aren't we safer today than before 9/11? Isn't that what this costly war was supposed to do? Where are all the flag wavers that supported Bush during his wild and crazy spending years? Let's hope America we'll do better next time we vote a leader in. Next time don't listern to promises and what the candidate thinks America should be. Next time vote for a leader by his accomplishments and his record for which George Bush had NONE
1-18-2008 @ 4:31PM
jeld803 said...
the next president should try Bush nee BOBO and his whole cabinet as war criminals and be bi-partisian about it
1-18-2008 @ 11:47PM
john a suillivan said...
This is not the time to spew hate and doom. We
all agree with the failure of this administration. Now
is the time for thought, sacrifice, and saving all that
is possible. We must rebuild this country, not by
force, but ingenuity, sacrifice and genuine apology
to all nations we have unjustifiably offended. We
need World Peace or get World obliteration.Pray
for leadership, true leadership for this country.
1-19-2008 @ 12:59PM
Robyn said...
I am amazed that people actually think that the problems with our government lie solely with the President. I am not happy with the job that Bush is doing but I do know that he is not the only one to be blamed. You need to look at the job that your senators and representatives have done also. Get involved in your local politics and help make a difference and stop complaining about one person. Our country is in the mess it is because we elect people to follow the constititution that is supposed to protect us from government getting so big, then we turn our heads and ignore the fact that the people we have put in Congress don't do their job correctly.
1-20-2008 @ 12:02AM
Rick said...
The only bigger idiot than those who voted for this current president are those who voted the second time. They have spent the last three years trying to justify they made two mistakes in a row.
I love the way they always have to blame Bill Clinton some way or some how regardless of how big the blunder of the current white house dunce, they drag Bill Clinton into it.
So let's just get it out of the way...forget the increased jobs...low inflation great economy and most of all THE BALANCED BUDGET...let's instead focus on the end of his presidency and the recession we were heading into...It is acknowledged but how Bush mishandled it and that is why we are in the fix we are in. So get over Clinton...or let's just get it out of the way...Bill Clinton is responsible for the current problems...he is also responsible for all the economic problems of the past and will also be responsible for all the economic problems of the future. Right now this country could darn sure use a little bit of the way Bill Clinton handled the economy...you people who keep on hanging with this guy remind me of parents who always say...not my kid...he wouldn't screw up...well your kid is in the white house and what a mess he has made
1-20-2008 @ 3:42PM
robbie said...
There can be no doubt, GB is the worst of the worst. He has led us to the brink of bankruptcy and to the brink of disgrace to the rest of the world. Before him, we were the super power. What are we today ?? Chopped liver. I'm calling for his resignation. The American people deserve better. The children deserve better. I say to you GB, "Step down; let us get back our dignity and our pride in our country".
1-20-2008 @ 3:54PM
JOHN JOBS said...
Americans are squeezed between outsourcing and illegal immigration. More than 50% of US companies including federal, state and local governments outsource production and services to India, China, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries. Average pay of workers in these countries is between 10c and 35c an hour without any benefits. Americans can not compete with these workers. Illegal immigration created flood of chip labor from Mexico and South America. Illegal immigrants take away low pay jobs from Americans, receive free education, free medical services and free room and board in prisons. Americans lost millions of good jobs to chip foreign labor and lost hundreds of billions of dollars dealing with illegal immigrants. Is corrupted and incompetent American government capable to resolve these problems ?
1-20-2008 @ 9:10PM
cheryl said...
we need a democrate in office
1-21-2008 @ 1:14AM
fares said...
now the time to think for thirt party,not lib or cap
1-21-2008 @ 8:22AM
Ralph Dreifus said...
Bush & congress will bail out Wall Street , the investment bankers and the loan sharks. Just remember the American standard of living has not risen since 1974, in fact it has been in decline and now it is in the avalanche phase
The people at the top of the heap that pay to put these jerks in office will do it again in the near future.
Your standard of living is in the tank and yet the top 1% of income earners actually get $1.34 for every dollar they earn thanks to our tax system.
The voters keep allowing the top 1% to buy the presidency. Where do you think the hundreds of millions of dollars come from. It isn't from $100 donations from people in the middle class.
Hillary Clinton has more money in her election fund than the entire Domcratic National Committee. She is bought and paid for and yet the stupid people rant about her. The total stupidity of the American public never ceases to amaze me.
1-21-2008 @ 11:49AM
susie said...
Bruce,
You are right on.............Loved your remarks
1-22-2008 @ 1:08PM
John said...
Let's get a few US Economics facts correct in this debate:
1. Industry and Banks drive this economy, not Washington DC. Decisions made by Industry and Banks affect how we all live, not the Reps or Dems.
2. Washington DC has never produced a product or a meaningful job. All they produce is "Unintended Consequences."
3. Washington encouraged (also known as political pressure) the banks and mortgage companies to expand home ownership to more Americans. What was the unintended consequence - traditional and stable mortgage lending practices were thrown off the bus and we got a whole series of "creative mortgages" - aka: "Junk Bond mortgages."
4. Individual Homeowners have an equal share of the blame. Whatever happened to the rule - don't invest in something you do not understand. What is about a mortgage that is charging less the interest you can get at a bank that doesn't tell the normal person that there are hidden costs that HE will pay. Nothing is ever free. If people bought a home without doing the pre-planning to determine they could make any and all payments, then they are part of the problem. I am sorry that they maybe foreclosed on, but they are suppose to be Adults, making the most important decision of their lives - buying a home. If they didn't take the time to do the budgeting and get advice, then they are guilty of the same mentality that has generated the credit card debt problem.
5. Individual and Corporate Investors share an equal share of the blames. CDOs are the "elephant in the living room" on this one. Investors (of all sorts) bought an advertised investment in which they could not realistically determine what they "actually owned" and then they re-sold them again and again. Anybody remember the numerous times we have had a "TimeShare Rental" bubble burst. Owning a fractional piece of something is akin to owning nothing.
6. Washington spending does not improve economic conditions. All it does is calm fears of the citizens in the short run. When you ask for Washington to "pay for something" or to "invest in something," always ask where are they getting this capital (aka money) from? Remember Fact 2 from above - Washington does not produce anything - they merely re-allocate capital from Industry, Investors, and Individuals to their current best idea, never thinking of the "unintended consequences."
7. Our current economy is a "consumer driven" economy. What does that mean - if the individual consumer stops spending, the gears of this economy start winding down quickly: less purchases = less production or products needed = less workers needed to produce the fewer products = layoffs & reduced tax collection = less spending by consumers and so on and so on.
Conclusions:
- All politicians are to blame because they feed the cycle of "No one is at fault."
- Consumers need to learn real economics and budgeting. If you have no money left at the end of the month - you are facing financial ruin - the only question is who, or what event will push you over that cliff. If you have no money left at the end of the month, how do you plan to handle all the "known-unknown" expenses of owning a house (broken pipes, increasing property taxes, recurring maintenance, etc.)
- Bankers need to get a firm grip on Ethics and Ethical practices. Consumers and Wall Street must insist that unethical practices such are these are punished - low of job, all stock options, all golden parachutes, and FUTURE EMPLOYMENT in the Industry. Clean House and keep it clean.
- Washington unfortunately needs to inject the capital into the Banks and Investments houses to fix this mess. If there is insufficient capital, then we face a serious correction and/or serious economic down-turn. Lack of capital = lack of cash to loan = lack of growth = decreasing markets = increasing loan requirements = less & less loans and higher interest rates on current/future loans, etc. etc. Remember the US is a consumer driven economy, unless the consumer can spend (responsibly we all hope), this economy will come to screaming stop.
- Lastly: Every American has a stake in this. That is, unless you wish to see your retirement plans (IRAs, 401ks, etc.), home equity, personal savings all vanish