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eBay (EBAY) fourth-quarter earnings preview

Posted Jan 21st 2008 4:32PM by Michael Fowlkes
Filed under: International markets, Earnings reports, Forecasts, Products and services, Management, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, eBay (EBAY), Amazon.com (AMZN), Marketing and advertising

E-commerce giant eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) will be reporting its fourth-quarter numbers this Wednesday, and analysts are looking for a strong quarter from the company, but then again, the fourth quarter has typically always been strong for the company. What analysts will most likely be more interested in, even more so than fourth-quarter numbers, will be the company's 2008 outlook.

For the fourth quarter, the company is expected to show earnings of 41 cents per share. For its fourth quarter 2006, the company only showed 31 cents per share, so if it were to report 41 cents for its most recent fourth quarter, we will be seeing earnings growth of slightly over 32 percent year over year, but will that be enough to bring buyers into EBAY shares?

2008 should prove to be a very pivotal year from eBay, which is struggling to get its auction business back on the right track. One thing that we could see this week is eBay announcing that it will be lowering its "insertion" fees. These are fees that the company charges its users to list items, and would lift the commission that users receive for selling their goods.

eBay users have been calling for the company to lower its fees, and maybe the company is starting to listen. Higher fees are blamed as part of the reason why the company has been in such a tight battle with its main e-commerce competitor, Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), lately.

A spokesman for eBay said that the company will continue to experiment with its fee structure in order to find the sweet spot that both company and users can be content with. The company realizes that there is a point of "friction" for its large user base and the company is working to find this point, and work within those boundaries.

While its auction business has been faltering, other components of the company have been growing nicely, including PayPal and Skype. Unfortunately, these aspects of its business offer lower profit margins, so the company has to figure out a way to get its auction business back on the right track.

So basically, when the company reports this Wednesday following the market close, earnings will probably not be the main thing that Wall Street is listening for. Of course, earnings are important, but for this precise moment in time, they will take a back seat to the company's 2008 forecasts and the company's plans to regain some lost ground in its auction business.

After the official numbers come in, BloggingStocks will be sure to update you with the figures as well as the market reaction to the quarterly numbers.

Here is a 12-month chart for the struggling EBAY stock to give you a better idea of just how badly the stock could use some good news:



What are your thoughts? Should we expect to see the company show strong numbers for its most recent quarter? What about 2008... will we hear positive guidance, or hear news of a tough year to come? What announcements would you most like to hear from the company this week? Let us hear your thoughts!

Enjoy the rest of your long holiday weekend.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer

Tags: Amazon, auctions, e-commerce, earnings, earnings reports, EarningsReports, eBay, featured, PayPal, Skype

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