The looming recession may be worse than the other two serious economic downturns that have hit the U.S. in the past 25 years, according to the Wall Street Journal.The reason is simple: the housing market is horrible, energy prices are high and the job market is weakening. Moreover, it is still not clear whether big Wall Street firms such as Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) have a handle on the meltdown in the subprime mortgage market or whether any of the economic stimulus packages being proposed will do any good. Remember the recession in Japan lasted a decade or so.
"Part of the problem is just not knowing," University of Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart told the paper. "The longer the process of not knowing what the losses are takes, the longer the resolution takes."
Investors, of course, are looking to the Federal Reserve to wave a magic wand and make things better. So far, the Fed's chief has been a disappointment.
"I think Bernanke is in a very difficult situation," former Fed Chief Paul Volcker told the New York Times magazine, which published a profile of Bernanke Sunday. "Too many bubbles have been going on for too long. The Fed is not really in control of the situation."
It seems like the light at the end of the tunnel may be an oncoming train.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-21-2008 @ 10:40AM
paul said...
Ladies and Gentlemen behold the wondrous Self-Fulfilling Prophesy! Watch as the Doom-Sayers speak words of awesome portent and the Masses react by running for the hills and sell their souls at bargain prices. Then watch as the Doom-Sayers snatch up the bargains and become fat on the panic!
Use your heads! Think for yourselves! Is your house going into foreclosure? If not then don't panic. If it is then figure out why. Did you take on a mortgage that was way over your head betting that the interest rates would protect you or that you'd land that six-figure salary? If so then suck it up and figure out a new solution for yourself. Tax cuts and paltry rebates aren't going to get your house back. Angelo isn't going to give the money back! The only one who cares enough to do anything is you. You have to save yourself. Think! I'm not going to tell you how to do it and anyone who claims that he has the solution is looking for your vote or looking to take your last dollar. Don't panic because someone with no answers is telling you the End Is Near! Find your own answers.
1-21-2008 @ 11:27AM
willy the impeached said...
How about this, every twit on Tv and in the media that predicts the "horrible" recession, quits their jobs when this turns out to be just another minor speed bump.
1-21-2008 @ 1:00PM
Bernard M. Russelman said...
It's just a media ploy to get Democrats/Liberals/Socialists elected on the fears of the ignorant masses, who know more about Britney Spears then they do about economics...
1-21-2008 @ 3:17PM
Americas Watchdog said...
We have the National Mortgage Complaint Center and we have been saying for over two years the real estate disaster would affect all sectors of the economy. We literally wrote banks & homebuilders, telling them to tighten their lending standards in 2005.....................no one listened. What amazes us is in this case banks & Wall Street actually invented products that would not only kill the consumer........but as it turns out would kill them too. (Pay Option Mortgages, 100% financing-Stated loans).
This is going to get so bad it is impossible to describe. A year ago we predicted this self inflicted real estate wound would put at risk our pension funds (they bought the MBS's). In the next few months they will be standing in front of Congress asking for a bail out. No sector of the economy will be spared.
Here's the bad part........US real estate values have gone or will go back to 2002-2003 levels. So if you purchased a home from 2003-2006----you are upside down------you have lost between 10% to 40%. How does the federal government fix that? Its trillions of dollars in equity that was never really there & its now gone.
If you think this is limited to the US, you'd be wrong. Moscow is now the worlds most expensive city. Moscow Russia the worlds most expensive city? Yes.
Thank German bankers for that one. This is a worldwide deal.
1-21-2008 @ 4:02PM
Warren said...
Do you guys have a 'recession' quota that mandates you must write X articles per day with the word 'recession' in the title?
Everyone else is taking the "ooga booga fear fear fear" tact. I can hear 'the sky is falling' from a dozen other sites. It would be refreshing to see you guys go a different way.
1-21-2008 @ 10:33AM
Dustin said...
I agree. Having recession in your title must bring more page hits. When does it become a self fulfilling prophecy?
1-21-2008 @ 10:42AM
tom2amy1 said...
Warren, well "put" seems the shorts are feeding the fear in order to make their bets payoff. Are we in a correction, sure looks likely. But the media & shorts act like we've never been in one before.
1-21-2008 @ 4:05PM
Warren said...
"So if you purchased a home from 2003-2006----you are upside down"
Maybe you are. My house is paid off. People said I was stupid to do that. *snicker*
1-22-2008 @ 8:16AM
Susan said...
For those of you who think this is not a really serious situation, you need to read (a lot) more and stop doing your own thinking about something it appears you know little about!
For one, it is critical for banks to be solvent. Banks are the places people and businesses go for loans to buy homes, cars, buildings, materials, education, etc. Businesses need that money to expand and to them hire more employees. Individuals need money to buy things those businesses produce to keep those places in business. Economic growth is dependent on you and me buying things - all sorts of things. If we do not have the money to do that, the economy will collapse. While many people try to make this 'economic circle' difficult to understand, it is really quite simple. It all boils down to: You and me having jobs to buy things businesses make thus creating robust economies that create more jobs thereby pumping more money into the economy. Is is actually as simple as that. With banks failing miserable, all of us will fail with them.
1-22-2008 @ 8:17AM
tony said...
does a recession mean that on high stakes poker they will only buy in for $100 instead of $100,000?
1-22-2008 @ 9:49AM
John said...
Your right Russelman...It's the Media trying to get Democrats/Liberals/Socialits elected. The economy in fact is in great shape..We are NOT in a recession...and George Bush is a economic genius..Wow...what planet do you live on??
2-01-2008 @ 5:19PM
Jill said...
LET A REALTOR SPEAK FOR A MINUTE??
Maybe this will make "some" of you feel better. I work full time in the new york Real Estate market. I'm here to tell you that I am absolutely amazed at the activity in the Dutchess County Real Estate market since January. Here's my January to February 1st experience:
#1-I've had a rediculous amount of showings on a house of mine listed for 290K. The reason for no offers is "bedrooms on 1st floor too small, and no garage." The buyers are still coming in droves though to check out the house.
#2-In the last week, I've attained 3 new buyer couples, all first time buyers. I am taking a couple out tomorrow and just called to schedule an appointment to see a pre-foreclosure house as one of our target houses. I am told by the listing agent that she discloses multiple offers that have come in on the house in the last week, and there is a bidding war. We are requested to bring in highest and best offers for the house. Because I know this can be a sales tactic, I gracefully said "no thanks". We'll see what the house sells for but I'm not putting my buyers in a situation of pressure like that. There's more where that house came from. Plenty more.
#3- I brought one couple to see a house about 2 weeks ago. Day #1 on the market, I got them in quick. That night, we made an offer. The next day, the listing agent accepted our offer and told us that if the inspection doesn't go well, let him know because there is a couple waiting for the house who understands they did not bid fast enough. They are in waiting as a "backup offer". Had we waited 1 more day, we would've entered a bidding war. What was the agreed on offer? 10K under asking price.
This may enlighten some of you as to the reality, atleast in new york, of the up-to-the-minute progress for real estate. I don't know what other states are seeing, but I, for one, am glad that I held on to my independant brokerage, even though financially, I can barely hold afford to live.
For some strange reason, I believe this is only the beginning. Those who do have good credit scores and solid jobs will take advantage of every minute of this. All we as Brokers have heard in the last 2 years is, "No, I'm gonna wait and see if the prices go down. Then, I'll buy".
We'll see what happens.
Jill
Real Estate Broker,
Poughkeepsie, NY
3-02-2008 @ 9:01AM
Nowak said...
Housing prices are not going to go down. Because we are in a recession the fed has been slashing interest rates in a desperate attempt to keep our ailing economy afloat. Lower interest rates mean more loans being taken out. All loans come from the central bank which just prints money. When you take out a loan for a house, you're not getting money that some bank has stored away...you are getting it from the central bank. Your bank just services the loan at a premium. Guess where the central bank gets its money? From the printing presses, diluting the current supply of money. Lower interest rates mean a weaker dollar. (AKA inflation) Therefore anything tangible including real estate will go up in value when compared to the dollar. It's not that your house is worth anymore than it was before...it's just that prices for everything are going up, whether it be oil, gold, silver, or food. Get ready for rampant inflation in 2008. The good thing for all the homebuyers out there is that the value of the dollar is going down, which makes the value of your home go up, yet you are locked in at a definitive dollar amount. Translated: Inflation is the friend of anyone who is backed by assets rather than cash.
3-02-2008 @ 4:16PM
Nowak said...
Housing prices are not going to go down. Because we are in a recession the fed has been slashing interest rates in a desperate attempt to keep our ailing economy afloat. Lower interest rates mean more loans being taken out. All loans come from the central bank which just prints money. When you take out a loan for a house, you're not getting money that some bank has stored away...you are getting it from the central bank. Your bank just services the loan at a premium. Guess where the central bank gets its money? From the printing presses, diluting the current supply of money. Lower interest rates mean a weaker dollar. (AKA inflation) Therefore anything tangible including real estate will go up in value when compared to the dollar. It's not that your house is worth anymore than it was before...it's just that prices for everything are going up, whether it be oil, gold, silver, or food. Get ready for rampant inflation in 2008. The good thing for all the homebuyers out there is that the value of the dollar is going down, which makes the value of your home go up, yet you are locked in at a definitive dollar amount. Translated: Inflation is the friend of anyone who is backed by assets rather than cash.