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Will Apple's numbers matter?

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will report its December 2007 quarterly numbers after the close on Tuesday. Consensus estimates call for revenues of $9.3-9.4 billion and earnings per share of $1.55-1.60. Stories circulating on many trading desks suggest that Apple could have topped $10 billion and earnings could range between $1.80 and $1.85. In this environment, will it really matter how much Apple exceeds expectations? It depends.

It depends on the most important statement the company can make: guidance for the first two or three quarters of 2008. In a normal growth-investing environment, if December results did top $10 billion and EPS around $1.80, the stock would be off to the races. But in this cautionary environment, the investor sentiment is only about guidance. What's the outlook? Does Apple see a slowdown? In the United States? In the rest of the world? What about inventory levels? Component pricing? You get the picture.

Portfolio managers and hedge funds I speak with love the name going forward, no question, and Apple has distinguished itself with cutting edge products and incredible margins. As one manager put it to me, "I loved the stock at $195, I still love it here at $161. What's changed? Nothing, just investor sentiment." He is right. Growth stories that are executing on their key fundamentals are not getting the "current credit" for these feats. The investing community has turned to defensive investing and is not hesitating to take profits where they exist.

Several veteran portfolio managers I have worked with over the years and speak to frequently are trying to pick their spots to add selectively to key, long term growth names. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) has come off $150 from its high of $747. As one manager bluntly told me "this stock has $1000 written all over it. But it will probably see $525-550 first!!" Another manager is confident that Apple's numbers may actually signal a near term bottom and "get this market stabilized and running up again. Apple could run up $25-30 this week -- at least I hope." I am glad to hear there is still some optimism out there.

So get ready for Apple's conference call after Tuesday's close and keep in mind the victory lap on the 4th quarter numbers (actually Apple's fiscal 1st quarter, as Apple has a September 30 fiscal year end) may be short lived. But remember that stock performance follows earnings growth in the long term, even though sometimes stock performance and earnings growth are not in a timely sync. But eventually, they do align!!

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research and author of " Baby Boomer Investing...Where do we go from here?"

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Last updated: July 20, 2008: 05:12 AM

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