Bloomberg News reports that the Federal Reserve Bank's 75 basis point emergency rate cut this morning has not damped fears in the market. The Fed said this along with its cut: "While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate. The Federal Open Market Committee took the action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth."
And yet, U.S. futures markets seem to have recovered somewhat from where they were before the announcement. For example, the S&P 500 Index futures expiring in March retreated 40.5, or 3.1%, to 1,284.8 as of 8:36 a.m. in New York after earlier slumping as much as 5.3%. And The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 1.5% after earlier dropping as much as 4.1%.
I think the problem is that investors holding mortgage-related securities such as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) need to mark them to market and raise capital. Cutting interest rates 75 basis points lowers the value of the dollar and contributes to higher oil prices, but it's not clear how it helps CDO investors raise capital.
If the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-22-2008 @ 10:43AM
nathan said...
The dollar's unchanged and oil's down.
1-22-2008 @ 11:08AM
joe leonetti said...
geez...if they don't cut the rate everyone complains...if they do cut the rate everyone complains......
1-22-2008 @ 12:35PM
jim said...
Want a stimulus Package? Get big oil interests out of office (Bush Cheney Condi) and get the price of gas back where it should be. That's what started this mess to begin with. Those people are laughing at us, all the way to the bank! They should all be impeached. Check out impeachbush.com.
1-22-2008 @ 3:14PM
Vern said...
How uninformed! THE PRESIDENT DOES'T CONTROL OIL PRICES THE MARKETS DO!
1-22-2008 @ 3:11PM
Vern said...
I think the Market "panic" is being fueled by the media. Every day they find something "wrong." One day its the administration: "The President's proposal doesn't go far enough." "Congress isn't doing anything." "The Fed's cut was too late, not enough, too much."
Most American's are so concerned about their Job & Family that they don't spend enough time really analyzing things - look at several different sources and make up their own minds. They watch 10 minutes of Net Work news and say "oh my god our economy is going in the dumper!" I blame the irresponsible media we have in this country. THEY SHOULD JUST GIVE FACTUAL INFORMATION AND LET THE PEOPLE MAKE UP THEIR OWN MINDS INSTEAD OF "SPINNING THE NEWS" TO SUIT THEIR POLITICAL VIEWS!!!!
1-22-2008 @ 3:21PM
paul said...
If we keep lowering I rates what will happen to elderly who rely on CD income? We have lost our mfg. base to unfair world competition - low labor rates, no healthcare costs etc... We must go back to integrity, honesty, values and good common sense. Good luck to all.
maxformal.com
1-22-2008 @ 3:28PM
Forrest Freedman said...
This type of volatility is to be expected given what happened in world markets over the MNartin Luther King Holiday, with all sorts of programmed trades overseas. When overseas markets adjust based upon Federal Reserves latest moves, there will be an adjustment upward which will also lift US Markets as well.
1-22-2008 @ 4:42PM
TMAN said...
GET THE F OUT OF IRAQ.
ALL THAT MONEY GOING THERE SURE WOULD HELP OUR ECONOMY IF IT WERE BEING SPENT HERE.
TMAN
1-22-2008 @ 5:12PM
jvendi4321 said...
what about the dollar......it will go lower yet!!!!!!
1-22-2008 @ 10:21PM
joseph concepcion said...
We the people need to take some responsibilities and educate ourselves in order to save our homes from foreclosures. I also feel many people out there are "COPY CATS". They would rather bail out from their financial obligations and let their home go on forclosure.
I just don't understand why we the people would put our nation into a recession.
GOD BLESS AMERICA
1-22-2008 @ 10:49PM
Boards0000000 said...
Yeah well EMERGENCY rate cuts are done out of desperation. He saw a global market crash about to spread back to us and he prevented our 1,000-2,000 point fall. He also stopped the global panic with this 3/4 rate cut. No it won't fix every subprime, credit card and auto default problem he inherited, but he sure stopped a global meltdown at the right time with the right cut. Give him credit for his saving of that situation. But I do agree the bigger underlying problems still linger, but the urgent problem was alleviated.
1-23-2008 @ 3:21AM
mac said...
fed cut is a band aid on a severed jugular. without
it, markets would have probably gone down 5-8%
today. interest rates are not the problem. who
was it last week that ponied up 14% to get a billion? would be the same deal today even post fed cut.
the crisis, and there seems there is one, is confidence, not rates.
the fallout from the rate cuts is unknown today,
but no question it is coming ala $, oil, gas
prices, and the impact on international biz
down the road.
is the fed going to spit a 3/4 rate cut each morning
the futures indicate the dow might open down
300 or 500 points?
1-23-2008 @ 9:29AM
Terry said...
From 1995 to 2001, American oil companies shut down 24 oil refineries along the West Coast. Gas prices in the mid-1990s were low -- too low for the likes of the oil companies. Refineries were operating efficiently, producing large quantities of gasoline and therefore cheapening the cost of gas at the pump.
According to a 2001 report by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), oil companies deliberately shut down refineries in the mid-1990s in order to increase the price of gasoline. Wyden based this conclusion on his acquisition of internal oil company documents written in 1996.
On Mar. 7, 1996 Internal Texaco document said: "As observed over the last few years and as projected well into the future, the most critical factor facing the refining industry on the West Coast is the surplus refining capacity, and the surplus gasoline production capacity. The same situation exists for the entire U.S. refining industry. Supply margins, and very poor refinery financial results. Significant events need to occur to assist in reducing supplies and or increasing the demand for gasoline."
1-23-2008 @ 9:36AM
Terry said...
A Nov. 20, 1996 Internal Chevron document said: "A senior energy analyst at the recent API (America Petroleum Institute) convention warned that if the U.S. petroleum industry doesn't reduce it's refining capacity, it will never see any substantial increase in refining margins...However, refining utilization has been rising, sustaining high levels of operations, thereby keeping prices low."
Last year, ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips broke profit records across all industries. ExxonMobil at $125 billion made the highest income of any company ever, in the history of the world.
"Oil companies' influence is just as great today as it has always been," Hightower said. "Joe Barton, and his cronies, are simply working in the best interest of the oil companies when he composes legislation like this; not in the best interest of the people." "Anybody who has money, and is willing to invest it in politicians, has influence in Texas politics," Prindle said. "Therefore, the oil industry is still important in Texas politics."
1-23-2008 @ 9:39AM
Terry said...
In 2001, the FTC found evidence of oil companies intentionally withholding supply to raise prices, but could not prosecute this anticompetitive activity because there was no evidence of an agreement among rivals. Congress needs to modernize the Clayton Antitrust Act to make oil and gas companies liable for unilateral anticompetitive acts – such as withholding supply in order to raise prices – even without an agreement.
Oil giant BP was fined $300 million for manipulating the propane futures market in 2004. Since the deregulation of the commodity futures trading market in 2000, oil markets have been vulnerable to manipulation and speculation. We need to restore basic transparency and oversight, such as requiring public reporting of large trades, to help identify and deter market manipulation. [U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs, 2004; CFTC, 2007; N.Y. Times, 10/24/2007]
1-23-2008 @ 9:43AM
Terry said...
Investigate the Anticompetitive Actions of the Oil Industry
A wave of mergers in recent decades has led to a consolidated oil industry as 21 companies have combined into eight. Vertically integrated companies like Exxon Mobil own every step of the production process – from extraction to refining to sale at the pump – enabling them to foreclose competition. President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and the chair of the Federal Trade Commission are all former oil industry insiders. We need the Justice Department to investigate the consolidation of the oil industry, the causes of higher petroleum prices, and solutions to the problem. [GAO, 2004, 2007; Kimmelman, Plunkett, Mierzwinski, 2004; Slocum, 2001]
1-23-2008 @ 9:45AM
terry said...
Strengthen Antitrust Laws
In 2001, the FTC found evidence of oil companies intentionally withholding supply to raise prices, but could not prosecute this anticompetitive activity because there was no evidence of an agreement among rivals. Congress needs to modernize the Clayton Antitrust Act to make oil and gas companies liable for unilateral anticompetitive acts – such as withholding supply in order to raise prices – even without an agreement. [FTC, 2001]
Reverse Enron-Era Deregulation of Energy Markets
Oil giant BP was fined $300 million for manipulating the propane futures market in 2004. Since the deregulation of the commodity futures trading market in 2000, oil markets have been vulnerable to manipulation and speculation. Restore basic transparency and oversight, such as requiring public reporting of large trades, to help identify and deter market manipulation. [U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs, 2004; CFTC, 2007; N.Y. Times, 10/24/2007]
1-24-2008 @ 11:41AM
jim said...
Thank you Terry!
And don't forget Condi who had a Cheveron supertanker named after her!
Want a stimulus Package? Get big oil interests out of office (Bush Cheney Condi) and get the price of gas back where it should be. That's what started this mess to begin with. Those people are laughing at us, all the way to the bank! They should all be impeached. Check out impeachbush.com.
1-24-2008 @ 11:37AM
jim said...
Thank you Terry!
And don't forget Condi who had a Cheveron supertanker named after her!
Want a stimulus Package? Get big oil interests out of office (Bush Cheney Condi) and get the price of gas back where it should be. That's what started this mess to begin with. Those people are laughing at us, all the way to the bank! They should all be impeached. Check out impeachbush.com.
1-27-2008 @ 3:20AM
sac said...
Thanks Terry, as much as our news media wants us to believe in oil shortage crises, given the articals you posted if true is another example of the media sending false messages. Why cater into the hands of those who hate our country ? Instead of digging into the truth and putting it front page the media plays " wag the dog " to misdirect from the real issues whether it be oil, racism and politics. Clearly the liberal left is leading our country down the tubes if we don`t put a stop to them. Where is the allegience ? We have gone from a proven path to the new liberal ideas of what they want is better. Now we see what they got us. Not one positive thing and many things uprooting the foundation of our country.