Motorola Q4 earnings preview

Even though Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone has torn the wireless market away from Motorola (NYSE: MOT)'s RAZR2 wireless phone, can the once high-flying wireless giant regain some sense of composure after a disastrous 2007? Not this quarter. Sorry, folks.

Although new CEO Greg Brown has only been chief executive for less than a month, the mess left behind by former CEO Ed Zander will take most of 2008 to fix. The last wireless hit from the company -- the RAZR -- did not see a successor and at the same time, Motorola has been challenged to find consistent profits as competitors nip at its heels. The RAZR2, which is a very high-end phone and a worthy follow-up to 2004's RAZR, has been completely overshadowed by Apple's iPhone. Result: the launch and sales (so far) of the RAZR2 have been a non-event, just at the time the company needed a home run. So far, the RAZR2 is not saving Motorola.

So, when the wireless giant reports earnings tomorrow, the consensus is for another disastrous quarter. Although earnings are expected to be 12 cents per share on revenue of about $9.65 billion, the 13% market share the company is expected to have would be down from 2006's 23 percent. Q4 wireless handset shipments are pegged at 40 million, representing that 13% market share.

Without a compelling wireless handset lineup that features access to 3G technology, it may take Motorola at least a few more quarters before it can battle back to more market share. The thing is that Motorola can't afford to take 24 months to bring advanced handsets to market unless it wants the competition to eat even more of its lunch.