Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) stock is falling this morning after the company reported it lost $2.7 billion, or $1.30 per share in the fourth quarter. Excluding items, Ford's losses were only slightly worse than analysts' expectations of -$0.19. The company added it will be adjusting production and making further cost reductions in North America this year, including a new round of buyouts for its 54,000 hourly workers in the U.S. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on Ford.
After hitting a one-year high of $9.70 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $5.50 on Tuesday. This morning, Ford opened at $6.40. So far today the stock has hit a low of $6.16 and a high of $6.40. As of 10:20, Ford is trading at $6.16, down $0.14 (-2.2%). The chart for Ford looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bear-call credit spread above the $7 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in two months as long as Ford is below $7 at March expiration. Ford would have to rise by more than 13% before we would start to lose money.
Ford hasn't been above $7 since December and has shown resistance around $6.30 recently. This trade could be risky if the economic concerns evaporate, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance F might find at its 50 day moving average, which is currently around $7 and falling.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in F.
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