U.S. initial jobless claims drop below estimate

U.S. Initial jobless claims fell for a forth consecutive week. Claims dropped by 1,000 to 301,000 for the week ended January 19 -- the lowest weekly total since late September -- and markedly below the 321,000 consensus estimate, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were revised up 1,000 to 302,000.

Also, the four-week moving average dropped 14,000 to 314,750. Economists view the four-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays and other idiosyncratic events.

Regarding states, the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Jan. 12 were in California, +27,194; Florida, +8,496; Tennessee, +6,143; Puerto Rico +4,138; and Texas, +3,793. The largest decreases were in New York, -25,349; North Carolina,-4,911; Georgia,-4,858; Wisconsin,-3,364; and Massachusetts,-2,970.

The number of continuing claims decreased by 75,000 to 2.672 million from a revised 2.747 million for the week ended January 12, the latest period for which figures were available.

Economic Analysis: Overall, another surprisingly low weekly jobless claims statistic: companies are not hiring, but they are not, so far, laying-off employees in large numbers either -- a cautious stance that perhaps reflects the uncertain future direction of the U.S. economy. Still, it's important to remember that the weekly average is volatile -- a major reason why economists follow the more-indicative four-week moving average. Also, the four-week moving average, while it declined this week to 314,750, is still at elevated levels and is a 'data point of concern' for the U.S. economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve will keep an eye on the four-week average: if it drifts above 350,000 and remains there, that would suggest a substantial softening of labor market conditions.