As discussed earlier this month, U.S. President George Bush embarked on a Middle Eastern tour to urge OPEC countries to raise production at their meeting this week, but signs are starting to indicate that the next move the oil cartel makes will actually be to reduce its production output.

With oil prices recently breaking through the $100 barrier, Bush pleaded his case that unless OPEC decides to lift production that high oil prices will create slowdowns in all consuming countries this year. The administration is praying for a cut at this week's meeting, but according to the Wall Street Journal(subscription required). the oil cartel is more likely to cut production this spring if demand start to diminish.

It is a tough situation in which the cartel finds itself. With recession fears starting to spread regarding the U.S. economy, OPEC has to worry that a slowing American economy will crimp global demand. On the other hand, if they do not boost output then the impact could even worsen a potential recession and reduce demand even more.

What OPEC is more than likely going to focus on are countries like China and India, as well are the entire Middle East where demand is strong and continuing to grow. OPEC ministers have slowly started to come out and state that production will be held steady at this weeks meeting, so look for cuts later this spring.

Another thing that we must consider is that OPEC has not historically adhered to its out limits anyway. During times of high prices the cartel typically pumps out more oil regardless of what it says in order to cash in on high prices. According to oil traders, over the past few months OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Angola have already been silently pumping more oil into the market place, to the tune of approximately 1 million barrels a day.

OPEC is also going to have to consider increases that may be coming from non OPEC countries this year. While the past few years have been disappointing for non OPEC production, this year is looking brighter, with analysts predicting that non OPEC production could be increasing by as much as a million barrels a day. The major players that will be bumping up production are expected to be Brazil, Sudan and the U.S.

Will OPEC respond to Bush's recent pleas for more oil, or will we see the cartel leave the situation unchanged this week? That remains to be seen, but for now it seems as though Bush's recent Middle Eastern trip is going to prove to be unsuccessful for the American President.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer