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Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) shares are rising this morning after the company reported a fourth-quarter profit of $854.4 million, or 78 cents per share. Adjusted earnings came out to 90 cents per share on revenue of $5.19 billion, beating analyst estimates of of 89 cents per share on revenue of $4.81 billion. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on LLY.
After hitting a one-year high of $61.00 in April, the stock hit a one-year low of $49.09 in November. LLY opened this morning at $52.92. So far today the stock has hit a low of $52.02 and a high of $52.92. As of 12:00, LLY is trading at $52.45, up $1.05 (2.0%). The chart for LLY looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just three months as long as LLY is above $45 at April expiration. Lilly would have to fall by more than 14% before we would start to lose money.
LLY hasn't been below $49 at all in the past year and has shown support around $50 recently. This trade could be risky if one of Lilly's drugs runs afoul of the FDA, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock has formed around $50 over the past three months.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in LLY.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-29-2008 @ 2:51PM
Daniel Haszard said...
The Zyprexa lawsuits are not 'settled'.
How does Zyprexa cause diabetes?
It has been "theorized" that Zyprexa causes diabetes by poisoning the pancreatic beta cells causing them to die off? (if this is true then it's really scary stuff)
On July 1, 2002, Duke University issued a Press Release about the most recent finding that links the new anti-psychotics to early onset diabetes. The team of researchers--Elizabeth A. Koller, M.D. from the FDA, and Murali Doraiswamy, M.D. from Duke-- analyzed FDA's adverse drug report database, MedWatch (which receives 10% of adverse drug reports). They identified 289 cases of diabetes in patients who had been prescribed olanzapine (a.k.a. Zyprexa), Eli Lilly's most profitable drug.
[ This I do know ...that at my local clinic the Doctors have stopped prescribing Zyprexa except as a temporary PRN for acute cases only.
WHY? for two reasons:
1) The reason they give it out at all is because it is a fine med where indicated for specific symptoms and does the job very well
2)They stopped it as daily maintenance because they believe in their own hearts that it is the worst offender over the other atypicals AND because their patients refuse to take it on account of all the bad Zyprexa PR
Daniel Haszard http://www.zyprexa-victims.com