CFO optimism plunges on U.S. recession fears, survey shows

"It is clear that the state of the economy is the number one thing on everyone's mind, and CFOs of course are no exception, from how they will choose the next leader of our nation, to what keeps them up at night," John Elliott, Dean of the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College, said in a statement. "Volatility in the financial markets and crisis in the credit industry, paired with weakness of the dollar have led to real and immediate concerns by CFOs about recession and inflation."

CFO concerns: economic growth, consumer spending

Of the 361 CFOs questioned, 73% said they were more concerned about a recession in the United States in the next 12 months, the survey indicated.

Further, CFOs polled believe the top economic worries for 2008 are economic growth and consumer spending. More than 47% of those CFOs surveyed consider economic growth to be the biggest economic worry; the respondents cited consumer spending as the second biggest concern.

In addition, CFOs did not think the Iraq War -- a major policy issue for the United States -- would be a top economic concern in 2008. Only 0.6% of respondents believed the Iraq War will be a top economic worry for the nation in 2008.

Soft U.S. Q4 2007 GDP data

Further, recent U.S. macroeconomic data is doing little to make the case that the CFOs' concerns about a recession are unwarranted. Earlier today, the U.S. Commerce Department announced that U.S. Q4 2007 GDP growth totaled a scant 0.6%.

The Q4 GDP statistic represented the nation's slowest growth since the economy started to recover from the 2002 recession and was also well below the 1.9% consensus estimate. The economy grew at a 4.9% rate in Q3 2007. For 2007, the U.S. economy grew 2.2%, the lowest growth since 2002. U.S. GDP increased 2.9% in 2006.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Wednesday that while he finds the CFO survey useful, the poll is not without its limitations.

"The percentages clearly are moving in the wrong direction, from a CFO confidence standpoint, but I tend to not place too much emphasis on it because CFOs in general tend to be more-cautious," Affinito said. "In other words, you're more likely to get a more-pessimistic view from this data set, than you would from, say, a cross-section of business executives, mid-level managers, and hiring managers."