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Bonds Are a 'Safe' Investment: A Big Lie Gets Even Bigger"Many analysts feel that we are in a bear market or soon will be; we disagree," says Dan Sullivan. In his The Chartist, the advisor looks at several seasonal and sentiment indicators that remain bullish.
"The overall sentiment amongst individual investors is extremely negative, which in the upside down world of Wall Street is a very healthy sign.
"In their most recent poll, the bearish contingent of the American Association of Individual Investors had 55% in the bearish camp. This means that 55% of the investors polled by AAII expect the market to be lower over the next six months.
"The current bearish reading has only been surpassed on two occasions over the past four years. There were 58% AAII bears back on July 14, 2006. Over the next six months, the Dow posted a gain of 14.79%. And the AAII bearish contingent hit 56% on November 23, 2007, one day before the bottom of the October/November sell-off.
"There's the Presidential Cycle. Since 1883, the Dow has posted an average gain of 6.7% during election years. In addition, what has been termed the Decennial Cycle, shows that years ending in '8' rank as the second best year of the 10-year cycle.
"Since 1888 there have only been two losing years versus 10 winning years. The losses were small with the Dow declining 2.1% in 1948 and 3.1% in 1978. Overall, the Dow posted an average yearly gain of 18.5%.
"Our advice is to continue to stay the course in this market, which has absorbed an incredible amount of negativity, which usually makes its presence felt at market bottoms. We have to wonder, what more can the doom and gloomers throw at it? Our advice for long term investors and traders is to continue to maintain all current positions."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
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