OPEC appeared likely Thursday to ignore President Bush and the west's plea for increased production and to keep production at current levels, The Wall Street Journal reported (subscription required).Further, OPEC ministers gathering in Vienna Thursday for Friday's meeting mulled whether to take action to address what some members believe will be an oil price slide if the slow-growth U.S. economy slows global growth, and consequently moderates demand increases in both crude oil and gasoline, the Agence France-Presse reported.
Kuwait's acting oil minister Mohammed Al-Aleem told the AFP that OPEC was "a little worried about the impact of a slowdown or a recession in the United States" on oil prices. "The price, for the time being, has been going a little bit down," he said. "We'll hear and see what analyses have been done" and he said they make a decision based on those analyses.
The Kuwaiti oil minister's comments came a few days after Iran's oil minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari told PressTV Iran that there's no reason for OPEC states to increase oil production.
Oil, which Thursday afternoon traded 70 cents lower to $91.57 per barrel, is down about $10 since January 1, 2008.
A key technical indicator
In addition, oil has closed below its 50-day moving average for 10 days. Many traders use the 50-day moving average, a technical indicator, to gauge a commodity's strength: a commodity is considered strong if it continually closes above the 50-day average; weak, if it continually closes below it.
Independent energy trader Jim Dietz believes oil is headed lower, and his trade positions reflect that, but he cautions it is by no means a certain calculation. Nothing ever is, when you trade the world's most vital and sought commodity, he said.
"A decision by OPEC to keep production the same Friday and to raise the possibility of a production cut this spring could complicate things from a price perspective," Dietz said. "This market assumes that OPEC's production will remain the same." Dietz added that he has oil-short positions, with both daily and monthly trades. Dietz also has gasoline-short monthly positions.
A slightly-milder-than-normal winter to-date in North America has combined with slowing U.S. consumer demand increases in oil and gasoline to take pressure of the energy markets, at least for now, Dietz said. Those fundamentals, combined with assumed status-quo OPEC production made Dietz oil bearish: Dietz sees oil testing $75-$80 per barrel and unleaded gasoline testing $2.75-$2.80 per gallon by early spring.
Of mice and men, and oil traders
However, Dietz said, "The best laid plans of mice and men, and traders who assume OPEC behavior, often go awry."
"If OPEC says they're thinking about cutting in the spring, that will change the market dynamic," Dietz said. "But it's seems almost totally unreasonable that they would be thinking about a production cut with oil at $90 per barrel. It's nuts. And it's not going to help the U.S. economy any." He added that he would close likely losing trades if OPEC announces they may cut oil production this spring.
The west, including the United States, has stepped up pressure on OPEC members to increase oil production to combat persistently high energy prices that many economists believe have slowed the U.S. and global economies. OPEC supplies about 40% of the world's oil supply.
Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Thursday, talk by OPEC of a production cut given the current weakened state of the U.S. economy, "would be unconscionable, pure and simple."
"A high oil price is one variable that could ruin the best monetary and fiscal recovery efforts by the United States to stimulate its economy," Affinito said. "And given the U.S.'s high involvement in international trade, it would seriously hurt the global economy as well, so OPEC needs to keep that in mind when they meet Friday."











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-31-2008 @ 7:19PM
Steve Wilson said...
Opec has created this big giant sucking sound in the worlds economy and I will be glad to see the day that its bites them in the ass!