CEO says Stanley Works (SWK) girded for recession

Tool supplier Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) remains optimistic about earnings into 2008, despite deterioration of the U.S. homebuilding market. Even in 4Q2007, when the domestic construction market softened like warm butter, Stanley Works managed to post more than respectable earnings. 4Q sales increased 15% to $1.2 billion. Diluted EPS increased 7% to $1.11, operating margins increased and free cash flow increased 89% from 4Q2006.

4Q2007 was a tough quarter in the U.S., as subprime mortgage losses ran into the billions, banks tightened credit, and construction slowed dramatically. Despite the meltdown in the U.S. market, Stanley posted double-digit sales increases in all its international markets, which helped to offset slower sales in the U.S. The story is the same for FY2007.

Overall, the company is in good shape with net sales up 12% to $4.5 billion, although only 2% of that growth is organic. More than half of the increase was due to acquisitions. FY2007 diluted EPS increased 15% to $4.00, and free cash flow increased by $99 million to $457 million. Despite forecasting an organic growth rate of 0-1%, CEO John Lundgren states that Stanley Works is well positioned to withstand a possible U.S. recession.