On October 31, the benchmark U.S. dollar-denominated MSCI All Country World Index closed at a record price of 427.63. It has since fallen to 366.21, a drop of 14.36%.
Yet not all world markets have fared equally poorly. Over the three-month span, there has been significant divergence between some of the best and worst performers, as the accompanying graph and table attest.
While it is hard to draw definitive conclusions, two things seem to stand out:
- Aside from Japan, which has been among the worst performing Asian markets for quite some time (and thus, has likely attracted considerable "bottom-fishing" inflows from value and contrarian-oriented investors in recent months), and Malaysia, which has remained a curious oasis of stability since global markets peaked, Asia-Pacific markets have not been been a popular investment destination lately. Perhaps we are witnessing the unwinding of ill-fated "decoupling" trades?
- The markets of more developed nations (with the exception of the United Kingdom, perhaps), as well as traditional safe havens like Switzerland, seem to have attracted a sizeable share of the flows that might previously have headed towards Asia-Pacific bourses. Moreover, despite all the problems emanating from the U.S. financial system, the relative outperformance of the S&P 500 index suggests investors either believe the Federal Reserve's aggressive easing efforts will be successful, or that America's traditional status as a "safe haven" matters more than other concerns.
Whatever the case, the pattern of global investment flows following key turning points often reveals themes that could also be influencing other relationships. Given that, even domestically-oriented investors would do well to take notice of what is happening outside our shores.
Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.
| Exchange-Traded Fund | Return since 10/31/08 |
| iShares MSCI Malaysia | -3.05% |
| iShares MSCI Switzerland | -10.20% |
| iShares MSCI Mexico | -12.06% |
| S&P 500 Index | -12.49% |
| iShares MSCI Japan | -12.60% |
| iShares MSCI Brazil | -12.85% |
| iShares MSCI Germany | -14.69% |
| iShares MSCI France | -15.32% |
| iShares MSCI Spain | -15.63% |
| iShares MSCI EMU | -16.12% |
| iShares MSCI Canada | -16.16% |
| iShares MSCI Italy | -16.45% |
| iShares MSCI EAFE | -16.86% |
| iShares MSCI Belgium | -17.55% |
| iShares MSCI Hong Kong | -18.14% |
| iShares MSCI Netherleands | -18.36% |
| iShares MSCI United Kingdom | -19.73% |
| iShares MSCI Austria | -20.17% |
| iShares MSCI Sweden | -23.18% |
| iShares MSCI Singapore | -23.32% |
| iShares MSCI Pacific Ex-Japan | -23.71% |
| iShares MSCI Australia | -24.52% |
| iShares MSCI Taiwan | -25.62% |
| iShares MSCI South Korea | -26.81% |









