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Microsoft-Yahoo: What happens now?

With the announcement of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), the real courting process is about to begin.

As I predicted back in July 2007, this "affair" had to happen if Microsoft was ever going to be serious in challenging Google (NASDAQ: GOOG)'s reign in the lucrative search engine world. Looking at October 2007 data from comScore -- the independent scorekeeper in the search world -- Google was actually widening its dominance. Explain please!

There were 55.3 billion search queries worldwide during the month of October. Google handled 42.4 billion of these queries, while 2.1 billion were directed to Microsoft and Yahoo! handled 10.8 billion -- or a total of one-quarter of Google searches. Worldwide growth was 56% year-over-year for the industry, while Google's annual growth alone was 81%. The message: Google was taking market share at the expense of Microsoft and Yahoo!. Coupled with its recent disappointing guidance for 2008, Yahoo! had no choice but to hook up with Microsoft, and the opportunity for Microsoft was now. That's all well and good, but now what happens?

Yahoo! is headquartered in Sunnyvale, Calif., just south of San Francisco, while Microsoft is 1,000 miles north in the Seattle area. The 1,000 miles is also the gap in their respective corporate cultures. Microsoft will do almost anything now to retain the key, strategic Yahoo! employees. Culturally, Microsoft versus Yahoo! is like the stiff-upper-lipped British "gentleman" meeting a reformed 1960s hippie. Microsoft I know would disagree, but visit both campuses and the differences are rather pronounced.

Yahoo! already announced the head-count reduction of 1,000 people from its 11,000-person workforce, and Microsoft mentioned a $1 billion worth of "synergies" once the transaction closes. "Synergies" in Silicon Valley means more head-count reductions. But more importantly, key Yahoo personnel not scheduled for layoffs will begin to feel suspicious. Will key positions be in Sunnyvale or in Redmond, Washington? Will my new boss wear a Microsoft hat rather than a Yahoo! hat? Will I be able to park my bike here on campus for free? Will the coffee remain free? Can I still create to my heart's content?

These are the types of questions that run through the brilliant minds of technology geeks. Microsoft will not close the Yahoo! transaction for about six months. The ensuing six to nine months will tell the tale if Microsoft is capable of absorbing such a large acquisition. The Microsoft acquisition of aQuantive went smoothly -- so far -- as aQuantive is only five miles away and key senior managers were kept in place. This Yahoo! purchase is about eight times larger, but Yahoo! was also a direct competitor to Microsoft. aQuantive was a totally new technology for Microsoft, so they had to retain the key players.

Microsoft has yet to detail what "synergies" really means. Who stays and who goes? What about Yahoo! CEO and co-founder Jerry Yang -- what's his REAL new role going to entail? Right now, Jerry must be kept happy.

Large acquisitions rarely go without major disruptions and surprises. The biggest surprise here may be Yahoo! employees "taking it easy" these next three to six months. The attitude of "we now have a deep pocketed parent" may permeate, and Yahoo!'s senior management will be more focused on the acquisition process than the business building process.

The real opportunity here may be for Google. Google may prove to be the biggest winner of all in this proposed deal. More on why this move is to Google's advantage in my next article ... stay tuned.

Georges Yared writes about finding great growth stocks today in GameOn Investing.

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Last updated: December 03, 2008: 10:44 PM

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