With the announcement of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), the real courting process is about to begin.
As I predicted back in July 2007, this "affair" had to happen if Microsoft was ever going to be serious in challenging Google (NASDAQ: GOOG)'s reign in the lucrative search engine world. Looking at October 2007 data from comScore -- the independent scorekeeper in the search world -- Google was actually widening its dominance. Explain please!
There were 55.3 billion search queries worldwide during the month of October. Google handled 42.4 billion of these queries, while 2.1 billion were directed to Microsoft and Yahoo! handled 10.8 billion -- or a total of one-quarter of Google searches. Worldwide growth was 56% year-over-year for the industry, while Google's annual growth alone was 81%. The message: Google was taking market share at the expense of Microsoft and Yahoo!. Coupled with its recent disappointing guidance for 2008, Yahoo! had no choice but to hook up with Microsoft, and the opportunity for Microsoft was now. That's all well and good, but now what happens?
Yahoo! is headquartered in Sunnyvale, Calif., just south of San Francisco, while Microsoft is 1,000 miles north in the Seattle area. The 1,000 miles is also the gap in their respective corporate cultures. Microsoft will do almost anything now to retain the key, strategic Yahoo! employees. Culturally, Microsoft versus Yahoo! is like the stiff-upper-lipped British "gentleman" meeting a reformed 1960s hippie. Microsoft I know would disagree, but visit both campuses and the differences are rather pronounced.Yahoo! already announced the head-count reduction of 1,000 people from its 11,000-person workforce, and Microsoft mentioned a $1 billion worth of "synergies" once the transaction closes. "Synergies" in Silicon Valley means more head-count reductions. But more importantly, key Yahoo personnel not scheduled for layoffs will begin to feel suspicious. Will key positions be in Sunnyvale or in Redmond, Washington? Will my new boss wear a Microsoft hat rather than a Yahoo! hat? Will I be able to park my bike here on campus for free? Will the coffee remain free? Can I still create to my heart's content?
These are the types of questions that run through the brilliant minds of technology geeks. Microsoft will not close the Yahoo! transaction for about six months. The ensuing six to nine months will tell the tale if Microsoft is capable of absorbing such a large acquisition. The Microsoft acquisition of aQuantive went smoothly -- so far -- as aQuantive is only five miles away and key senior managers were kept in place. This Yahoo! purchase is about eight times larger, but Yahoo! was also a direct competitor to Microsoft. aQuantive was a totally new technology for Microsoft, so they had to retain the key players.
Microsoft has yet to detail what "synergies" really means. Who stays and who goes? What about Yahoo! CEO and co-founder Jerry Yang -- what's his REAL new role going to entail? Right now, Jerry must be kept happy.
Large acquisitions rarely go without major disruptions and surprises. The biggest surprise here may be Yahoo! employees "taking it easy" these next three to six months. The attitude of "we now have a deep pocketed parent" may permeate, and Yahoo!'s senior management will be more focused on the acquisition process than the business building process.
The real opportunity here may be for Google. Google may prove to be the biggest winner of all in this proposed deal. More on why this move is to Google's advantage in my next article ... stay tuned.
Georges Yared writes about finding great growth stocks today in GameOn Investing.









Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-01-2008 @ 7:35PM
Heinrich Berghaus said...
Next buy is AT&T and Google.
2-01-2008 @ 8:16PM
Preston said...
I feel that it makes a lot of sense for Apple, Inc. to merge with or acquire Adobe Systems, Inc. That combination would be the world's largest creator of digital content, and more importantly, the thru iTunes it would ultimately be the largest distributor! Thats where the real money will be made.
But time is of the essence. Apple better make its move while Adobe is affordable. Next year Adobe shares may be trading in the $40's again.
2-01-2008 @ 8:25PM
belec said...
Make you a bet. The Bush justice department will approve that illogical bid by microsoft. Reason Microsoft is making the bid NOW is because they want that disgraceful Bush gang to approve it before the Democrats get in. Don't think Microsoft did not pick up the phone and ask the creeps in the oval office what they would think if a bid was made. Microsoft to bid for Yahoo is like Boeing, the plane maker, buying American Airlines.Legal traps in such a deal are frightening. Microsoft makes the rules in this country. They want more visas for foreign techies, and they get it. Unfortunately,it got into hot water in Europe, which does not suck up to Microsoft. They were fined hundreds of millions of $$ for anticompetitive stuff.
2-01-2008 @ 9:16PM
Boards0000000 said...
I think this will be good for Microsoft and Yahoo. Combine and get more advertising market share.