Is a Giants' Super Bowl win good news for investors?

Posted Feb 4th 2008 9:30AM by Peter Cohan
Filed under: Indices, Business of Sports, DJIA

As an imperfect New England Patriots fan, I stopped watching last night's Super Bowl at half time. After squirming as the New York Giants defense tore through the Patriot's front line and repeatedly sacked quarterback Tom Brady, I had a strong feeling that the Patriots would not win.

Nevertheless, the bad news for me and the many far more loyal Patriots fans, could be good news for investors. According to ITtoolbox, that's because of the Super Bowl Predictor (SBP) -- whenever an "original" NFL team wins the big game, in this case, the Giants -- the market rises. The SBP has been right on the direction of the DOW in 33 of 41 Super Bowls which is an 81% success rate.

Bob Stovall of Wood Asset Management who is the media's go-to-guy for the SBP, thinks it was 'actually influencing the market "in reverse" right now with traders pushing down stocks since they - and Vegas odds makers - figured the undefeated Patriots would win, according to the Wall Street Journal. So the futures market should be way up this morning on the surprise Giants win, right?

Wrong: According to The Associated Press, Dow futures are down 18 points. No worries though. SBP fans still have until the end of the year to see whether it worked in 2008.

Meanwhile I'd be willing to predict that the media will not be publishing many stories at the end of 2008 about whether the SBP was right this year. And what moves the market will continue to remain a mystery to me.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Tags: featured, New England Patriots, NewEnglandPatriots, nfl, NY Giants, NyGiants, Stock Market Indicator, StockMarketIndicator, Super Bowl, SuperBowl