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1. Expect the unexpected: Neither the Giants winning or the low 17-14 final score was expected in the least (Bull markets can't last forever, stocks DO NOT always trend higher over time)2. Never trust "experts:" Ex-Giant and "football expert" Tiki Barber was dead wrong when he retired one season too soon while trashing his former teammates and coaches in order to get attention (Don't listen to "market experts" when they make predictions like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) $300 and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) $1,000 to get attention)
3. The acknowledged best are not always the best performers: Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, the league MVP, got outplayed by oft-criticized Eli Manning (just because hugely successful companies like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), General Electric (NYSE: GE) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) are leaders in their fields does not mean their stocks will outperform lesser quality rivals)
4. Past performance is not indicative of future returns: For the season, the Patriots came in undefeated, the Giants had lost six games (Wow, this standard SEC disclaimer is actually right on the money for once!)
5. The weakest sometimes become the strongest: Little known Giants wide receiver David Tyree did more in this one game than he had all season, capping his performance off with one of the greatest catches in Super Bowl history (Hurting homebuilders like KB Home (NYSE: KBH), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) have been the best performers in the entire stock market as of late)
6. Certain rules are ridiculous: The game was already decided, spectators and press were on the field and Patriots coach Bill Belichick was already in the locker room when two seconds still remained on the game clock, but the NFL made the Giants run one more play (Lots of ridiculous stock market rules: The Pattern Day Trading Rule, hedge fund managers can't advertise or talk to the press, people in the finance industry are prohibited from reviewing financial books (as I learned with my book)
7. Eyeballs matter: This year, with estimates of 100 million people watching, a 30 second ad cost $2.7 million. (This is why horribly run businesses like Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) can get premium buyout offers)
Disclosure: Giants fan
Timothy Sykes writes the blog timothysykes.com, is a former hedge fund manager, star of the TV show Wall Street Warriors and author of the book, An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-04-2008 @ 10:55AM
sara said...
You are king of truisms. Congrats.
2-04-2008 @ 12:39PM
Dan Barnett said...
I'd like to add another. "It's not over til it's over". The Giants won in the last 35 seconds of the game. In Market terms, if you've made a good selection, (stock pick/game plan) don't panic if things take a little time.
2-04-2008 @ 1:08PM
GEORGE said...
A VOTE FOR CLINTON IS A VOTE FOR THE DEVIL
2-04-2008 @ 6:09PM
Capirnicus said...
The Clintons looted the White House when they left seven years ago, so I'm told. If Hillary is elected,t he next time they leave they will loot the nation. So I'm told.
I think the Giant's looted the game.
2-05-2008 @ 11:53AM
future1investor said...
Tim,
Thanks for making public the lesson not to trust the so-called experts. Kudos for teaching using the Super Bowl as this should help footballers understand it better.
After all, if the analysts and newsletter owners where as smart as they pretend, they would be wealthy and would not need to work to create newsletters or call themselves analysts working for some company.
The one that really gets me is all these email spammers and online marketers. They pretend that without subscribing to their newsletter, you won't be able to profit as well. Then they go on to use examples based a few of their last years picks to highlight what would have happened had you invested on their tips.
I find that my friends do this daily in the market. They say: "If we would have bought XXX-stock on Monday at $lowest price and sold it Monday at $highest price we could have been up 29% for the day! But instead we waited and bought at X-price and sold at Y-price and only made 9%.
I always tell them the same thing and someday, they'll actually register it in their brain. It is all too easy to look back in retrospect and see the lowest price and the highest price of the day. I tell them that if it was possible to know the lows and highs, then we'd all be wealthy! Everyone would do it! So that it why it is important to do your fundamental research, monitor the sector, what is happening in the world, and then choose a comfortable buy in. And then with as little emotion as possible, sell when it makes sense or enter a sell order at a price comfortable for them and let it ride.
Too many people are too insecure to believe that with some education, a simple process, and a discipline (fortitude to follow through with the process) that they can do well enough on their own. Instead, they are dooped by so many of these analysts and newsletters into thinking that subscribing is the easy road. Its like rats to a Pied Piper.
Then there is the whole DoublingStocks with Marl scam...