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Are U.S. consumers moving away from buying on credit?

American consumers, the pivotal factor in the consumer-dependent U.S. economy, may have modified their spending philosophy, The New York Times reported Tuesday.

Stung by the housing market correction, stagnant wage growth in certain job segments, above-average debt levels, and a slowing economy, Americans are saving more and using credit less -- a shift that some analysts argue is a cultural inflection point of sorts, with huge implications for the economy.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Tuesday that while The Times' interpretative report did not "cite a large enough sample size to meet my fancy," it nonetheless provided data points that support what macroeconomic indicators are saying about consumer choices.

"We know that the savings rate has increased in the last six months, and retail sales are sluggish, at best. Take these and combine them with much tighter credit terms for home equity loans and other credit and what you get is a pull back in purchases, particularly purchases on credit," Affinito said.

A fundamental shift?

Affinito said economists would need more data, and yes, more time, before concluding that there's been a fundamental, sustained shift in how U.S. consumers pay for their purchases.

"We have to see whether the changes are related to this economic cycle, or to some other long-term factor, for example the aging of Baby Boomers, or possibly a combination," Affinito said. "If, after factoring-out age, and controlling for price categories, consumers are using cash only, that would be a shift with major implications for our economy. But I'm not prepared to say that yet."

Meanwhile, Affinito said it's important for investors/readers to know that, given the U.S.'s decade-long long sub-par savings rate, an increase in the savings rate is a good thing. "Without question, Americans need to save more and consume less," he said. "It prepares them for future goals and retirement, increases our pool of funds to invest, and lowers inflation."

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Last updated: December 03, 2008: 11:54 PM

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