Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) shares are rising today after the apparel maker posted a fourth-quarter profit of $112.7 million, or $1.08 per share, helped by higher wholesale sales and a lower tax rate. Analysts had been expecting a profit of 77 cents per share. Wholesale sales rose 17% to $627 million. RL also raised its 2008 guidance this morning, a move that investors generally love. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on RL.
After hitting a one-year high of $102.58 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $50.55 last month. RL opened this morning at $60.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $60.11 and a high of $62.89. As of 10:45, RL is trading at $62.72, up $5.26 (9.2%). The chart for RL looks neutral and improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bull-put credit spread below the $50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just seven weeks as long as RL is above $50 at March expiration. Polo would have to fall by more than 20% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
RL hasn't been below $50 at all in the past year and has shown support around $52 recently. This trade could be risky if the sour feeling surrounding the US economy continues for the next few months, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the fact that the company caters to upper-class consumers.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in RL.
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