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In recent months I have been recommending that investors take a look at the defense sector as a safe haven during this erratic stock market -- erratic and down. My most recent post on the subject was Chasing Value: Raytheon (RTN) up on earnings & 2008 outlook. The defense sector has beaten the S&P 500 index for eight years running and this year may mark the ninth straight.
In a previous post I trumpeted General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) and still believe in the stock. The price-to-sales is a modest 1.33. The P/E of 16 and dividend are average, but it has a healthy ROE near 20%. If you believe the forward looking P/E it is only 14. GD makes the Gulfstream aircraft for the wealthy jet-setter and the Abrams tank for the military. How many of those will need parts or replacement in the coming years?
When I was evaluating my 2008 picks I looked at most of the large defense contractors and included RTN over GD. If you look at the chart below and the original story Chasing Value: General Dynamics (GD) looking long and flying high!, you will find I was looking at General Dynamics around $90 a share. We bought in at $88 so you know I like it even more in the area of $83 where it is trading now.
Speaking of government purchases of spare parts, this was released on Monday: General Dynamics Receives $44 Million for Mine-Protected Vehicle Spare Equipment. For a company like General Dynamics the large inventory of their equipment on bases around the world assures continued business. I do not have to explain much when I say the government is not getting these at deep discount!
For whatever it's worth, the Standard & Poors report, issued February 1, 2008, rates GD (the worlds sixth largest defense contractor) four stars with a 12-month price target of $98. If this pans out, then we are looking at a possible 20% return counting the dividend.
I am not comfortable speculating on price targets. I would rather deal in probabilities or likelihoods, and from everything I see there is a high probability that General Dynamics beats the overall market, while minimizing investor risk.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. He owns shares of ISRG. Disclosure: I own shares of GD.
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