The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may reduce production when it meets next month as part of a strategy to try to keep the price of oil above $80 per barrel, Bloomberg News reported Friday.Bloomberg quoted unnamed OPEC sources as saying OPEC would lower production if prices slip below $80 per barrel, with one oil minister saying $70 per barrel would be unacceptable to most members. If prices stay above $85, the cartel would not cut production. OPEC meets next on March 5.
Oil surged $2.74 to $90.85 per barrel Friday at midday on the news. Meanwhile, heating oil rose about 5 cents to $2.50 per gallon, gasoline gained 3 cents to $2.29 per gallon. Natural gas rose about 6 cents to $8.17 per million BTUs.
OPEC, which produces about 40% of the world's oil, is said to be concerned that the U.S. economic slowdown could hurt oil demand growth.
OPEC expects global oil demand of 87.4 million barrels per day in the first quarter and 85.5 million in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency expects slightly higher demand during the two periods, 88.2 million in the first quarter and 86.7 million in the second quarter.
Economist Steve Affinito called talk of a potential OPEC effort to defend $80 oil "a counterproductive strategy."
"If it's true, it would not be a prudent move by OPEC. This is exactly what the U.S. and global economies do not need," Affinito said. "Research clearly shows, from consumer spending, to big ticket purchase activity, that high gasoline and oil prices have started to bite consumers and they're pulling back. These high oil prices have slowed the U.S. and global economies substantially. OPEC's attempt to keep oil above $80 with extend and deepen any economic slump. It's a counterproductive strategy."
In an interview with BloggingStocks, economist David H. Wang said OPEC appears to be repeating a mistake.
"There's a saying that goes, 'History repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.' Well, OPEC is at the farce stage," Wang said. "OPEC twice, in 1979 and 1990-1991, did little to lower high oil prices during those periods, and the U.S. economy fell into a recession both times. There was talk that they wanted oil prices lower, but their actions said otherwise, and prices remained high, which just ruined [GDP] growth."
This time, Wang said, the consequence may not just involve a U.S. / global recession, as destructive that is for commerce and global economic development. This time, OPEC's high-price addiction, "may end up killing the goose that lays the golden egg," he said.
"OPEC is making a serious strategic error, in my view. The world is not the same place that it was in 1979 and 1990. Technology has advanced and the longer the price of oil stays high, the more attractive alternate energy sources become," Wang said. "If oil stays above $80 for a decade it is entirely possible that nations, even whole regions, will have shifted to an oil substitute."
Conversely, a sustained drop in oil's price to $60 or $50 would invariably delay - - or even curtail - - development of some of those new technologies, particularly in the gasoline-car-fuel-oriented United States, he said. The west, Wang said, an in particular the United States, "has shown a remarkable ability to drop any new energy technology" at the first sign of a return of cheap, available gasoline and oil. An OPEC defense of $80 per barrel oil would prevent that from happening, he said.
"OPEC may once again receive a brief revenue gain from its tactic, but this time in doing so they may be hastening the cartel's demise," Wang said.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-08-2008 @ 2:56PM
David N said...
Who are advising OPEC ?
They need to be fired .Now.
The rest of the world will be thriving -in double and triple digit new growth- and their cartel will dissolve faster than they ever imagined.
Why? Short term greed fueled alternate fuel source development and enormous investment
creating whole new industrial giants.
Outside of the OPEC orbit.
Mr Lazzaro has got this one right.
2-08-2008 @ 3:07PM
Tom said...
The first step to decrease demand and therefore cause a short-term price decline, is for writers and reporters to stop using the term "production" and start using the more accurate word "extraction." OPEC and the oil companies don't produce oil, they simply extract a dwindling finite resource and refine it. Hopefully demand will start to decline as consumers and governments face that reality.
2-08-2008 @ 3:18PM
Boards0000000 said...
Break out the bicycles, mopeds and carpools. Turn down the thermostats on oil furnaces. This is financial war on OPEC. Cut way back people. Don't drive unless it's an emergency. Take buses or walk when you can. If possible buy an electric car. Do whatever it takes to bring OPEC to their knees.
2-09-2008 @ 4:07AM
zee said...
Of all the articles on oil you could have picked---I think you picked the one that points your readers in the wrong direction---
I'm short USO and will be short till it reaches it's 200 day, around $62.
The Saudi's are more scared of a recession than any stupid alt energy source---use some common sense-
zee