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It is not a revelation to state that Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-New York) campaign has stumbled and is reeling. It would be a revelation to argue that despite all of the advantages that public policy experience, party apparatus, and political contributions affords, Hillary Clinton could lose the 2008 Democratic Party Nomination, and to an upstart at that.
When one is trained in public policy and economics, you tend to view the world, at least the economic and political worlds, through a social science prism, and with that lens one can detect three Clinton campaign errors that have led to the current nomination process state-of-things.
The economy
To-date, the Clinton campaign has failed to emphasize Clinton's biggest strength: how she would fix an ailing U.S. economy. Clinton has at least five policy proposals that speak directly to what many Americans need economically; she'll have to emphasize these to secure the nomination.
Connection with the people
Further, Clinton has not done a good job demonstrating, by deed and word, that she cares about the typical person. The error has created a void, and critics have used it to re-run dozens of news analysis narratives about "Hillary's negatives." Hillary's negatives exist, but Hillary's positives exist, too. To win, she needs to be seen listening better, and demonstrating that she's going to be a president who puts the typical person first.
Negativity
The campaign has corrected this error, and just in the nick of time. Maybe. President Bill Clinton was miss-deployed, and went negative -- a first-order strategic error. Hence forward, you'll see President Clinton promoting Sen. Clinton's accomplishments, experience and what she'll do to address the nation's problems. He won't utter one word about that other guy. Or as Bill Clinton would probably put it on the campaign's plane, what other guy? Bill Clinton knows he has a right to defend his wife. He can achieve that by promoting her accomplishments, end of discussion.
The upshot of the primary season's first few rounds? (Investors / readers will carefully note the analogy to the early part of a boxing match, a prize fight.) Inexplicably, and regrettably for the Democratic Party, it's a dead-heat, a tight battle for the party's nomination. Bring out all the clichés, because this time they describe reality. Every state and every voter counts. It's the first time that major presidential candidates have campaigned in Nebraska during the primary season in 20 years. Nobody rests or takes a day off, Carville says, except for a high holy day, until we're at two thousand twenty five. And keep checkin' back with your superdelegates, mercy sakes, every few days and find out if there's anything they need.
It's going to be an interesting spring.
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Also read Lazzaro's two other posts in the series:
- Is Obama in 2008 like JFK in 1960 -- on the glory road?
- McCain is not your father's Republican Party nominee
Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the U.S. Presidency and the U.S. economy.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-11-2008 @ 6:19PM
B Bryen said...
Bill the Pimp and Hillary the Hag, can't we find someone other then a Clinton or Bush to be our President, what a nation of sheep. We will get what we wish for.