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Is Obama in 2008 like JFK in 1960 -- on the glory road?

A colleague based in Washington, D.C. recalled that moment in the 1960 presidential campaign when Kennedy's campaign staff knew that John F. Kennedy would defeat Richard Nixon. It occurred that fall, just before their first televised debate -- the first presidential debate ever broadcast on television.

The then Sen. Kennedy, a Democrat, was fresh from a vacation at the Kennedy Compound at Hyannis on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. He was bronzed from days spent sailing in the sun, and he was well rested. He looked like a Greek sculpture.

Conversely, the then Vice President Nixon, a Republican, looked ashen, tomb-stone white, with deep-set eyes from weeks of campaigning.

And as is the norm before a show, the TV producer asked Kennedy if he wanted some make-up.

"Nah, I don't want any make-up," Kennedy said, and motioned off the make-up man with his hand.

Nixon, perhaps trying to match Kennedy, and despite his sweaty face, refused make-up, as well.

"I don't need any make-up either," Nixon told the director.

As it turned out, Nixon was wrong. Kennedy's bronzed stature and solid performance in the debate boosted his standing in the polls. Moreover, the image of Kennedy we see is considered to be one of the most iconic images in U.S. presidential history. Nixon, conversely, looked horrible during the debate, and sweated throughout. Nixon's appearance cost him votes that night, despite a solid intellectual performance, and separate surveys later demonstrated this. Among those voters polled who watched the debate on television, a majority thought Kennedy won the debate. However, among those voters polled who listened to the debate on radio, a majority thought Nixon won the debate.

Further, the sight of the bronzed and rested Kennedy vs. the obviously tired Nixon convinced Kennedy operatives that if they had a lead after the debate -- which they did -- that Nixon would not be able to close it. From that moment on, they knew that Jack Kennedy was on the glory road.

***

The question investors/readers can reasonably ask today is, is Sen. Barack Obama (D-Illinois), on the glory road? There are some parallels between Obama's campaign in 2008, and J.F.K.'s campaign in 1960.

The short answer is that it's just too soon to tell, but the beginnings of a big change in American politics, and in public policy, are there.

Obama is attracting new voters in large numbers, primarily African-Americans and young voters ages 18-21. If current trends continue, turnout records will be set for these two groups, a demographic that favors Obama decidedly. He is also attracting young couples and young, urban professionals (also called Yuppies). He is raising large amounts of campaign funds. Equally significant, he also has received the endorsement of several key members of the Democratic Party establishment, most notably, Sen. Ted Kennedy and Sen. John Kerry, both from Massachusetts. Most significantly, he has performed well in primaries throughout the United States, drawing standing-room-only crowds. In short, Obama has had about as good an early primary season as any new candidate can have, and his performance has produced a dead-heat in the contest to become the party's presidential nominee.

But party nominations, like baseball pennants, are not won after the first two months. Obama will need three more months of solid campaigning, during which he must demonstrate what changes he would make to improve the nation and correct its problems, what programs he would start or expand to increase hope, and what initiatives he would undertake to unite a bitterly partisan Washington, D.C. and a nation seemingly split between blue and red states on the issues that matter most.

As noted, it's just too soon to tell, but so far Sen. Obama is off to a good start.

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Also read Lazzaro's two other posts in the series:

Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the U.S. Presidency and the U.S. economy.

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Last updated: September 05, 2008: 11:10 PM

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