We spend a considerable amount of time trying to figure out where value lies in the market.
A lot of last years' favorite high flyers have come back down to earth. Some of them are starting to resemble bank stocks. However, I have read nothing of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) dabbling in sub-prime mortgages or CDO's. Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) has not reported any bad news -- and both are down but showing signs of some upside again.
Regardless, the price on any given day is a myth, a story, speculation based on a
few truths and many unknowns. There is a lot of huffing and puffing about current and future valuations.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) one of our most inventive, progressive and dynamically promoted companies is down over 35% in one month. Apple euphoria pushed it too high in December, and I think it could be argued that it has become a value play now. My colleague Georges Yared is on record forecasting a one-year price for AAPL shares of $300...10.5 to go. Beltway Greg, one of our frequent AAPL enthusiasts has thrown out a price target of $260, and I am on record with a $225 as the top end. Apple closed at $145.46 $125.48 on Friday.
What is the truth? There is none, until we are looking back at facts instead of forward with best guesses. As of today Apple might even be too high. Hey George, what do you think now?
Don't even get me started on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) My last post on the subject was Amazon is not worth a penny over $60 - and I think even less! It closed Friday at $73.50 with a P/E around 66. So in case the math is tough for you, AMZN has to increase its net earnings by 100% to achieve a P/E of 33 twelve months out and would then be 22% higher than Apple is today -- go figure. There have been times that AMZN was on sale but for most of it's existence I have thought it was over priced and I do today as well. As best as I have been able to learn AMZN's price is greatly affected by the limited number of shares: Who owns Amazon.com - really?
January and so far February has been a tough month in the stock market but I have positioned for the long term with many value propositions. In the short run I have been the "price is right" winner on a few things like GOOG and ISRG and I don't share many peoples pessimism for the stock market. We have been net buyers in January and February looks to be the same. Who knows, I might even get crazy and buy some Amazon some day.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. To find potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of ISRG.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-11-2008 @ 11:21PM
Beltway Greg said...
But the really ironic part is that Citigroup's own analyst without fear, best friend with the beer , football team devoid of cheers, that would be none other than da man Richard Gardner put Apple on their Live Picks or Pick to Live list whatever today with a target price of $212 I believe.
Nevertheless, you might remember Rich, he was the guy who, last spring, downgraded Apple at $100 on valuation concerns. I bet him $1 million dollars that Apple would finish above $115.00; he never called back. Actually this explains a great deal about Citigroup. Git R' done.
One need only look at the price swings in ISRG to realize how a stock like Apple could easily go over $200 in a very short time. If Apple beats next quarter look out. Let's return to the scene of the crime shall we?
Beltway Greg
Hey I'm not makin' this up.
2-12-2008 @ 11:02AM
Sheldon L said...
Greg,
ISRG and AAPL are night and day. Apple does not have as big a moat or market. ISRG is only now beginning.
2-12-2008 @ 1:50PM
gumbo koontz said...
HOw come nobody has the hots for ALCOA? It is very cheap..... There is mining stock mergermania yet nobody is buying ALCOA in anticipation of it occuring to ALCOA as well. Are we gonna wait until it is too late ?
2-12-2008 @ 6:33PM
Jathy said...
"Apple closed at $145.46 on Friday"
What planet was this on?
2-12-2008 @ 8:09PM
Sheldon L said...
Thanks Jathy, I don't know where that number came from, it's now correct.