Coca-Cola (KO): Commerical recap and earnings preview

Posted Feb 12th 2008 3:40PM by Beth Gaston Moon
Filed under: Earnings Reports, Coca-Cola (KO), Technical Analysis

I'm still enjoying the sweet taste left in my mouth from this morning's Coca-Cola Classic (I treat myself to three of four of the syrupy concoctions each week). I'm also still enjoying -- at least once a day -- Coca-Cola's (NYSE: KO) "It's Mine" Super Bowl ad, my favorite among the bunch. The dueling parade balloons concept (available to watch here) was clever and well-executed, nicely scored (with a 60-second excerpt from the Rossini Overture), and complete with a big payoff at the end. Also note the thoughtful inclusion of a young brunette girl, football in hand, around the 50-second spot. (Anyone else reminded of Lucy Van Pelt?)

Most importantly, the ad had solid brand placement, frequently reminding viewers what was being advertised. This was not the case with Coke's chief competitor, PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), which employed dancing lizards and supermodel Naomi Campbell to publicize its SoBe Life Water. Problem was, "Life Water" was barely mentioned.

But the fun of Super Bowl Sunday is behind us, and the business of earnings is ahead. Coca-Cola is set to announce its fourth-quarter results tomorrow. The mean estimate among analysts is calling for per-share results of 55 cents, a 5.8% improvement from year-ago results of 52 cents per share. The high estimate at this point is 57 cents, with a low of 50 cents; the revenue estimate weighs in at 5.77%.

KO has been successful in the earnings confessional, topping Wall Street's expectations in the past 13 quarters, according to Thomson One. The company has exceeded estimates by an average of three cents per share during this impressive run. Though Coke is facing higher commodity costs, from aluminum to fuel, it is likely that this trend of positive earnings surprises will continue.

Technically speaking, KO could be forming a bottom after a weeks-long decline. KO dropped in late January along with many blue-chip names, amid fears of an economic slowdown or outright recession. This pullback has subsided, however, and the stock has caught the support of its rising 32-week moving average. A strong earnings report could allow the shares to bounce higher from this trendline and regain its upward momentum.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Tags: advertising, commercials, earnings, inthenews, KO, PEP, revenue, Super Bowl, SuperBowl