"I am quite confident that business students in the future will be reading case studies on the battle between Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD)," says value investor Charles Mizrahi.
In his Hidden Values Alert, the advisor explains, "This is a classic case of a castle with a wide moat coming under attack because the attacker believes it has caught the duke napping." Here, Mizrahi shares a fascinating over the "Coffee War."
"As background, in 1982, Starbucks had five retail stores and was selling coffee to restaurants in Seattle, Washington. It was during that year that Howard Schultz signed on to manage retail sales and marketing. After traveling to Italy, he convinced the owners of Starbucks to open a coffee bar.
"It was a huge success. One year after going public in 1992, Starbucks had 275 locations. Today, Starbucks is the leading retailer and roaster of coffee in the world. There are nearly 7,000 Starbucks stores in the U.S. and almost 1,800 in international markets.
"Schultz's genius is that he took a commodity (a cup of coffee), made it a brand, and was able to charge three times its market price. His vision was to make Starbucks serve as the 'third place' people gather, between home and work.
"As the company's expansion swept the U.S., Starbucks also began adding drive-through window service and selling breakfast sandwiches. By doing this, Starbucks encroached on McDonald's territory, and it was only a matter of time before 'war' would be declared.
"Before attacking Starbucks head-on, McDonald's scoped out the marketplace, saw what needed to be done, and then began executing. In 2003, McDonald's initiated a turnaround strategy, remodeling its stores, moving toward oversized chairs and softer lighting and colors, and even installed wireless Internet.
"In 2005, McDonald's began taste testing its coffee and in February 2007, Consumer Reports magazine rated McDonald's drip coffee as better testing than Starbucks'. In a page out of Starbucks' playbook, McDonald's moved its espresso coffee machines to the front counter.
"The company now plans to roll out coffee bars with similar-tasting beverages, served by baristas, at lower prices, to its 14,000 U.S. stores in 2008.
"Starbucks' moat had done a very good job of keeping competitors from attacking the castle. But over the past few years, Starbucks has slipped up just enough to allow McDonald's to feel confident that it could take on this coffee giant.
"Starbucks is not taking the McDonald's threat lightly. Chairman Schultz became more active, took the title of CEO, and already has made some changes. He wants to bring back the 'romance' and 'theater' that Starbucks once provided.
"In addition, Starbucks plans to reduce the number of promotions and items it offers and to focus on consistency of operations among all store employees. In other words, Starbucks is going back to basics and trying to turn specialty coffee from the commodity item it had become to the branded item it once was.
"Meanwhile, it is too early for McDonald's to call its attack a victory. In fact, it may appear that this attack has awoken the slumbering giant. McDonald's will need to get over several formidable hurdles before it becomes a more real threat.
"Because McDonald's is a franchise system, it is optional for franchise owners to create coffee bars in their stores; most haven't made the investment. Inconsistency is one area in which Starbucks has more control, since its stores are company-owned.
"McDonald's is going to find it hard to change the public's perception of it from a kid-friendly fast-food restaurant to a third home for people between home and work. How successful will the company be in cross-selling a $3 latte to a customer that just a $1 meal?
"Our conclusion is that while watching the coffee war take place, you should keep in mind that the value of a company is not all in the numbers.
"Every day in every industry, companies must be able to continue widening their moats and defending themselves or else their intrinsic value will eventually erode. Weaknesses are exploited, strategies are drawn up, and war is fought for territory-which, in business, is market share.
"At the early stages of this conflict, I would wager that Starbucks has the advantage. Many great companies with strong brands-such as Coca-Cola, American Express, and even McDonald's have regrouped, got back to basics, and gone on to increase value for their shareholders.
"Over the past year, Starbucks' stock price has fallen nearly 50%. Mr. Market has priced in the worst-case scenario for Starbucks and is discounting its market dominance, competitive advantages, and strong brand. A stock price of $19 or less should provide investors with an adequate margin of safety.
"This is based on the assumption that Starbucks can grow earnings by 16% per year over the next five years (a drop of 36% from their past five-year average EPS of 25%) and trade at a P/E of 18. I have found the most profitable investments to be in buying a company with a wounded brand at a discount to its underlying value."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-12-2008 @ 5:06PM
Driver X said...
Starbucks has a huge advantage. The Starbucks employee is the advantage!!! They have manners, assist the customer in a professional manner, and they can say Thank You in syllables you can understand. They are not rattling off some canned goodbye sentence as fast they can to get you gone. Starbucks is worth more.
2-16-2008 @ 7:20AM
rick said...
Rather than SBUX or MCD, I prefer a local coffee house. I can't stand the thought of paying an exorbitant amount of money, at SBUX, for an average product, where the customer has bought into the marketing strategy of corporate hype. The employees make small wages while the execs live large, keep your money local and help your community. Local coffee shops have better ambiance, also the quality of the product and service are superior. Mickey Dees concentrate on selling a healthier core product and forget about priemum coffee. Who wants to relax with a good cup of coffee in a place painted bright red and yellow with sliding boards and the aroma of french fries.
2-14-2008 @ 7:11AM
Shannon said...
Why would anyone want to sit in McD's three leather chairs placed right in an entry exit path to the food line? Even if their coffee tastes OK, the ambience and relaxation factor is about minus 75.
2-14-2008 @ 1:07PM
LaDeena said...
I wouldn't even think about entering a Starbucks if my life depended on it...They are pathetic excuses for Americans. Starbucks wouldn't even help out our soldiers with a little free coffee while they gave their time to help another country polluted with terrorism and barbaric acts. For me that is simply an unacceptable act of treason for anyone who lives and has an American business; to refuse their soldiers a simple coffee request. Shame on Starbucks. I will take my briefcase to McDonalds and drink my coffee there...I might add they are cheaper and their coffee is better!
2-18-2008 @ 7:27PM
PrttyLttlPnk1 said...
Yeah, know what you are talking about before you open your mouth. Sbux actually encourages customers, as well as their own partners, to donate coffee--and now even toiletries and other needed supplies-- to the troops. Maybe if you stopped in sometime you'd know the truth. I guarantee that the company's compassion for others far out-weighs your close-mindedness. I have never come across a corporation that cares as much about the community, their partners, and their product as they do. They will always have my vote...
2-14-2008 @ 2:21PM
Driver X said...
Starbucks did not refuse the military coffee. This is an internet myth and you are spreading it further. Check snoopes.com
2-14-2008 @ 8:27PM
marsedoats said...
Personally I believe Starbucks is a much better tasting coffee than Mcdonalds. I'm sure in those taste tests , the coffee was made by people who actually care how it taste, but in the real world the people who make the coffee could care in the least to make it properly or what you want it exactly. ( i have yet to order a coffee at Mcdonalds and actually get it how I asked for it) I agree with the past comment the employee is the difference. Starbucks is all about coffee. McDonalds on the other hand is all about the grease trap.
2-14-2008 @ 9:24PM
Cappucino XL said...
I think that Starbucks coffee is and the service is better. The only thing McDonalds got is the price down pat in this thing on the coffee market. I would sit my briefcase at Starbucks.
2-16-2008 @ 6:59PM
Coni said...
I wish Quik Trip had a place to sit & drink their coffees! They would definitely give both McDs & SBUX some real competition. Not only are the employees superior but the coffee is THE BEST!
2-14-2008 @ 10:48PM
Lynn said...
In 2001 I loved going to the McCafe for a good coffee and light sandwich or sweet. Of course I was living in New Zealand at the time. It served a dual purpose--I could have my choices and my husband could go to the other section of the store and do his hamburger thing!
2-16-2008 @ 6:55AM
Pat Ciara said...
I am a Dunkin' Donuts fan and have gotten to the point where I won't drink any other coffee. I have 8 pounds a month delivered to my house! Starbucks is too bitter and burnt tasting. McDonald's comes in second.
2-16-2008 @ 4:28PM
tim said...
who does macdonalds purchase their coffee from?
2-19-2008 @ 11:32PM
Cappucino XL said...
Newman's Own by Greenmountain
2-25-2008 @ 11:29AM
Michael said...
I'm an all American Man.
I believe in the American Way.
I have not been a coffee drinker since this past year. I have tried all kinds of coffee and I have landed on McD's coffee. I think not only in multiple flavors but on the coffee itself.
I drink a large coffee every morning at 2am. Cannot get that most anywhere else locally.
McD's it is.
2-27-2008 @ 6:02PM
Jennifer said...
I used to work for Starbucks. I loved the company and what they stood for. I think that they are in trouble, I think that it will be hard for them to increase their profits. I think they are not a novelty anymore. There are too many of them and they are all over. I don't enjoy going in there anymore, I am tired of the drinks, I can get a latte anywhere I go now. I actually like getting them at other places now too, because they are different.