Social scientists, unlike some journalists, are reluctant to label anything a trend until they've amassed and evaluated a great deal of data often over years. A journalist can always cite a lack of information, or the crush of daily (and shorter) deadlines as a reason his/her news story did not describe reality, but if a social scientist errs in a refereed-article, well let's just say the action is not conducive to career advancement. And that's why many social scientists are reluctant to comment on the impact of Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) run for the U.S. presidency: it's way too early to articulate informed conclusions that are likely to endure.
Still, that's not to say that one can't comment on developments that may -- and underscoring "may" -- be indicative of a trend. And along that line, here's what we know about the Obama candidacy regarding voting behavior:
Substantially more African Americans and young voters ages 18-21 are both registering to vote, and are likely to vote in both primaries and in the general election. Particularly with regard to the general election, which has no non-elected superdelegates, the impact of this increased voter turnout could be seismic. It has the capacity to turn a losing candidate into a winner, and with it, to shift the balance of political power in the United States.
Moreover, there's no better example of the impact an additional few million votes can have on an election than the 2000 U.S. presidential election, when Vice President Al Gore (D-Tennessee) won the national popular vote, but narrowly lost the Florida popular vote, and the electoral college vote, and as a result, the election, to current President George W. Bush (R-Texas). [Note: the Florida popular vote's final total remains a matter of controversy to this day.]
Obama's strong showing among African-American voters was expected. His ability to substantially increase young voter turnout was not. Keep in mind that, historically, voters ages 18-21 have had the lowest turnout rate in presidential elections. This is one reason political scientists are reluctant to attribute political strength to this group, because, historically, they haven't exercised it, at least as it is expressed by voting. Further, if young adults want to know why the U.S. Congress and presidents frequently ignore their concerns, without fear, this is it.
But understand that this would change, if young adult voter turnout increases substantially. Even a 10% turnout increase in this demographic would be significant; 20% or more, seismic. Equally significant, given that Obama undoubtedly would be the reason for and the inheritor of many of these new young voters' loyalties, he stands to gain the most political power from the electorate's change.
Again, it's important to underscore that we are early in the primary season, and that conditions could revert to the previous electorate make-up -- young voters, for whatever reason, may suddenly chose to revert to their previous norm and not vote -- but the early indicators point to electorate change and major political gains for Obama.
In this case, it's hard to discern if the phenomenon is more technology-driven, or Obama-driven, or a combination. (To discern that, we'll have to evaluate the Internet's impact on elections without Obama, among other tests.) Still, the important here is that the change suggests that, again, more young people are getting involved in the political process and are likely to vote in the 2008 election. And again, by extension, assuming that most of these new young voters are likely to vote for Obama -- a plausible argument -- one can argue that, at least initially, the big winner in the Internet's increased role in politics is Obama.
But even if one takes Obama out of the political equation -- no small weight in any political theory, given the increased political activity his candidacy has generated -- one can say that, at least initially, it appears that the Internet itself, with its disproportionate use by young adults and their probable increased involvement in politics, is likely to increase the influence of these voters in American politics and on public policy.
Political Analysis: Again, it's critical to underscore that it's not November 2008: young adults may end up not voting in larger numbers and percentages. But if their turnout increases substantially, history tells that their political power in the United States will increase, and that the president and the Congress will have to pay more attention to their interests and concerns.
Financial Editor Joseph Lazzaro is writing a book on the presidency and the










