As a registered independent who voted for Obama on Super Tuesday, I was interested in reading BusinessWeek's take on Obama's likely impact on the U.S. economy. Its conclusion is that Obama is thoughtful and refreshing and is willing to work with business leaders, many of whom may reject him because he does not hew to the Republican line on taxes.
Last Friday, while Guest Hosting CNBC's Squawk Box, I spoke with Obama's economic advisor, University of Chicago professor Austan Goolsbee. He made two points that I found interesting. First, he said that Obama is very enthusiastic about the prospects for the U.S. economy and the stock market. Second, he suggested that Obama was months ahead of Hillary Clinton in proposing an economic stimulus package.
I asked Goolsbee what he thought was the cause of the economic slowdown. He thought the problem was the cash-strapped consumer and that tax rebates were the solution. I argued that the problem is that banks lack sufficient capital to offset the write-downs they're taking in the wake of the evaporation of demand for the Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) they hold. Goolsbee thought this was a secondary problem and did not embrace my proposal to recapitalize the banks.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-13-2008 @ 12:31PM
Diane said...
Suggesting that a tax rebate will help much to resolve the economic problems the general population is experiencing is simplistic.
A major overhaul of banking policies relevant to individuals is really needed. What ever happened to "truth in lending"?
It appears it no longer exists. The pages of small print explaining details of conditions on loans, credit cards,etc. makes real understanding by individuals impossible. Is this not a smoke screen so that over time enormous profits are made by institutions ....by what I call underhanded tactics.
2-13-2008 @ 8:20PM
Clifford Sondock, President of the Land Use Institute said...
Diane, it is naive to suggest that "larger print" and "new and improved" banking policies (regulations) will address the causes for the pending sub-prime debacle.
Most Economists readily acknowledge that excessive increases in the money supply by the Federal Reserve and artificially low interest rates set by former Chairman Alan Greenspan were primarily responsible for "irrational exuberance" in borrowing by consumers.
It is unreasonable to expect people who "find" thousands of dollars on the ground or in their homes, not to spend it.
Finding fault in banks pursuit for higher profits or in consumers unwisely spending more than they can afford holds a blind eye to the dangerous affects of the enormous inflationary tendencies inherent from any Government's central bank.
The primary blame for our current financial malaise rests with the source of easy money, the Federal Reserve.
2-13-2008 @ 12:52PM
JNIPPLY said...
I rather not get a rebate from the government, put that money for the defifit. All those rebate, local government will just take all that money back. Or something will just go up. You will never see that money in your savings account or pocket.
2-13-2008 @ 12:52PM
Steve said...
"Its conclusion is that Obama is thoughtful and refreshing and is willing to work with business leaders, many of whom may reject him because he does not hew to the Republican line on taxes."
What? You mean how Republicans cut taxes while increasing expenditures, putting the nation further and further into a debt it will take generations to recover from? Yeah, let's embrace those idiots.
2-13-2008 @ 1:53PM
Nick said...
I would rather not get the rebate - I think this whole mess stems from the the Feds and the Government not having a long term view and interest of this country at the heart of all the policies.
- Is there any interest to reduce and eliminate the deficit by increasing investments, increasing exports and reducing imports? All that's been done is that the US$ has been kept artificially strong thereby keeping the import bills arterially low. There was no real interest to reduce the dependence on imports and giving a boost to exports (both manufactured and service based).
- Is there any interest by the Government to improve the decaying and overloaded infrastructure?
- Is there any interest in working to reduce the cost of education for the citizens of this country? A well educated and smart population will improve productivity, increase investments in US and grow the economy and make this a stronger and powerful country. No one truly cares about the high cost of college and university education.
It looks like all the people in charge of the economic policies are looking to make themselves look good while they are in office - perhaps so they can get re-elected/collect big fat checks/fancy new high paying assignments after they retire. No one truly cares about this country and no one is willing to take tough decisions and tough measures to remedy the problems impacting this country.
If something is not done very quickly to solve these problems, this country will seize being the center of the world economy.
2-13-2008 @ 3:32PM
Monte said...
I have been investing in both real estate and the stock market for many years.
The solution to the current real estate sub-prime debacle is not for the feds to reduce the loan rate further or for the bailout program currently on the president's desk. The issue to be addressed is to resolve the current condition of the residential real estate market.
Many of the sub prime loan originations made over the last few years have already indexed upward with an additional 1.7 million loans scheduled for indexing in 2008. We all realize that there are a major amount of bankruptcies, resulting in severe nationwide loss in market value of homes.
Proposed Solution:
Owner occupied homes - Freeze loan payments at the original “teaser rate” for 5 years.
Non owner occupied homes - Freeze loan payments at the original “teaser rate” for 2 years.
While I don't want to reward the speculator, they are a major portion of the market and therefore a major portion of the problem that has to be resolved for the real estate market to return to “normal conditions“.
Loan regulations should be revised so that current loans and loans made in the future are made on a conventional basis to return to normal real estate market conditions.
Require that appraisals are made to confirm accurate Loan to Value ratios. Loans are made subject to qualifying the borrower. Severe penalties for lenders making phony loans and penalties to the borrower for making false statements in loan applications.
Regulations to be established to require that there be better separation between the lender and the appraiser, so that appraisal values are made without lender pressure.
Lenders who make sub-prime loans and package them, and rating services that apply high credit ratings to such blocks of loans is another story.
2-13-2008 @ 4:45PM
REdw185462 said...
With Obama saying he will creat 7million new jobs in construction, I suspect that means for illegal aliens. They are filling most of those jobs now.
2-14-2008 @ 12:57AM
steve28040 said...
so everybody will get a tax check , how is that going to help american when every thinkd we buy is made oversea who will benifits china taking our job and now our money what do we have left .
2-24-2008 @ 6:08PM
SRVfan1 said...
It's so difficult to believe that Mr. Cohan, being in the position he is, has quite obviously not done any research into the senate votes, or the senate bill Mr. Obama has introduced; most specifically the World Poverty Act now making the rounds of congress, which will cost the American taxpayer close to one Trillion dollars through 2012.
Obviously Mr. Obama has not done any research, either, or he would know that one cannot lift another person out of poverty any more than I can go to the gym and work out for another persons benefit, 'nor can I drink water to slake someone else's thirst. Poverty cannot be eliminated by the transfer of wealth. In the past 40 years, Americans have had about six Trillion dollars of their hard earned money given away to those who have not earned it, and all we have to show for it is thousands of state and federal union jobs..... and six Trillion dollars worth of poverty. Thank you, (ex) President Johnson. The Great Society program(s) have not worked, and they never will; Socialism and Marxism never work, as history has repeatedly shown. But, as usual, the Liberals and Democrats just think that they haven't done enough of it, or have not yet spent enough money on it, to make it work.
Face it folks: if it was going to work, someone would have thought of a way to make it work by now. And these are the people you want to control your health care? NO THANKS!!! I've seen government-run housing. The same Great society Program(s) have had other effects; like the ruination of the Black family; the downward spiral of the inner city, and more. Yes, even though it wasn't until the last three decades that the Democrats have become a European Socialist party, there ideals have been the same: be the party of the poor person, then pay them to remain poor, then give them stuff to buy their votes.
If Mr. Obama becomes president, and the democrats remain in control of Congress, it will be the end of our great Republic. America will be America no more. I urge everyone to read the goals of the United Nations Millennium Project, and the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Agenda 21 would be a good read, also. All of these things will come to pass if Obama is elected. America has much to fear from this man, if only one looks behind his words.
2-25-2008 @ 12:09AM
SRVfan said...
To add to my previous, and to refer to some of the other replies, the short-term stimulus package will help some personally, but will do practically nothing to help the economy in the long term. Small and large businesses need to know way ahead of time what their taxes will be, not just for the next year or two.
Remember that just 8 months ago, the American economy was the best in the history of mankind, with better than 100% employment. I, along with those paying attention, knew 18 months ago that the housing bubble was going to burst, but I didn't know when. And who is most responsible for it?? The Liberals, when back in 1979 they allowed the banks to provide sub-prime loans to those who they felt weren't getting their fair share of the American Dream.
Jim Quinn's 1st law: "Liberalism ALWAYS generates the exact OPPOSITE of it's stated intent." In 45 years I've yet to see a situation where that hasn't been the case. Remember folks, jobs aren't being exported, the corporations are leaving running and screaming from excessive taxation and over-arching government control. If America could somehow get the "Fair Tax" passed, all those jobs, and more, would come right back to America, and we'd have a double-digit GDP. Of course, the rest of the world would have a fit, because wealth always goes to where it's treated the best. But instead of lowering their taxes, they'd rather do what they can to get us to raise our taxes; which is exactly what Obama, or any other Democrat/Liberal/Socialist/Marxist will do if they get control of both the White House and Congress.