Yesterday when I posted Why complain about GE and not JNJ -- a puzzle? I got my answer. Investors do have patience, but it's limited. They will wait three years for positive results, but maybe not five, and ten -- forget about it!
As you can see from yesterdays' chart comparing three-year performance, there is no difference and in both cases the stocks are down. The difference is nobody is demanding that heads should roll at Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) while they are at General Electric Company (NYSE: GE).
The comments I received discuss longer periods of time and go back to the year 2000, so I extended the comparison. The following is a five-year comparison of performance. Here is the shocker -- over the last five years GE outperformed JNJ considerably. Yet, GE still takes all the flack?
Going back still further comparing a ten-year period tells the story more clearly. You will note that GE's performance has been rather erratic over the past ten years while JNJ has been more constant and out performed during this period. However, one should also note that if you bought into GE at its low you would have made money, and as the five-year chart portrays, you would have beat JNJ.
My conclusion is that among JNJ investors you could have bought in at almost any point. In the long run you would have done just fine, not great, but acceptable, given the turbulence in the market and the safety and security that Johnson and Johnson offers. The last three years have been flat, but so be it.
On the other hand, GE investors buying in around the year 2000 got creamed and resent it. Their patience has not been rewarded and they are steamed. Had you bought in ten years ago, you would still be up, although only a paltry amount, but still up. You would also have received a generous dividend.
The biggest disparity is one of expectations. GE investors thought they were buying the same consistency and growth in equity that JNJ provided and they did not get it. In a great many cases they are one and the same investors so they are well aware of the different paths the two stocks have taken.
Although timing is evident in the stock performance I do think GE investors have some legitimate complaints. Wall Street has been patient with CEO Jeffrey Immelt and I think GE is approaching bargain status based on my belief that this will be a positive year for the companies earnings.
If this does not prove to be true, then I expect GE's administration to be clearing out about the same time as the present residents of the White House do.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. Disclosure: I own shares of JNJ.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-15-2008 @ 7:34AM
Mark said...
Here is the real reason to shun J & J, they are rent seeking snake oil scam artists at best. Under the radar and unknown to most people, J&J's political division, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) fund the smoking ban lobbying efforts around the country and the world so that J&J's subsidiary ALZA which manufactures Nicoderm & Nicoderm CQ can post huge government mandated profits. More here:
http://cleanairquality.blogspot.com/2007/02/smoking-bans-good-public-policy-or.html
http://cleanairquality.blogspot.com/2008/01/pharmaceutical-interests-who-funded.html
2-15-2008 @ 4:23PM
Rob said...
Both GE and JNJ have delivered solid financial returns in terms of both growth and ROI. I find it hard to blame management because investors bid their stock up to unrealistic heights at some point in the past, so I personally give GE management a pass and would blame myself if I bought when the PE was 30.
2-15-2008 @ 4:51PM
Sheldon L said...
Very mature Rob
4-01-2008 @ 6:52AM
marchell_10 said...
It is my belief that JNJ is given a pass, because they spend a lot of time marketing their "Credo", which other than marketing serves no day to day value within the corporation. If it did, then the company would, according to it's Credo, be posting a return for it's shareholders.
But everyone is afraid of JNJ, afraid to admit the the emperor has on no clothes. Afraid to admit the organization is the exact opposite of everything that they market to the world that they stand for.
If investors truly wanted to know how well managed JNJ is (or is not) they would call for individualized sector reporting of numbers. They would ask how much or current profits are a function of acquisitions and how much is organic.