For those who are new to BloggingStocks, I wrote a series back in May-June of 2007 highlighting what I thought could be the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years. The series was written and researched as an answer to a USA Today article that highlighted the best 25 stocks of the past 25 years.
I wrote about Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) back on May 21. The stock was trading at $82 per share, although I had been recommending it in my advisory service back when the shares were trading at $40. I thought, and still do, that Chipotle has a chance to be the next major American fast food restaurant chain. In September 2007, the shares hit $114-115, and frankly, I thought the stock was ahead of itself and needed to take a breather. I wrote an update piece explaining that although I still believed Chipotle will be a major player for the NEXT 25 years, it seemed prudent to take the opportunity for short term profits. Commodity costs were rising and the chain was not about to raise its menu prices to offset.
The shares proceeded to go as high as $155 and I thought that maybe I misread this one. The numbers were strong and I thought the momentum in the name might actually keep it afloat. Phew, finally, this one has come back to earth. Chipolte has fessed up that higher commodity costs and a slower spending consumer have taken their toll. The shares are back down to $105, representing a 30 P/E multiple on 2009 earnings per share expectations of $3.40. Still expensive, but this is a very high growth rate company.
I would wait for the shares to trade back below $90 before putting a toe in the water. The concept is viable and very popular. The chain has room to quadruple its store base in the United States and will emerge as the best new concept in this decade and the next. I'd keep an eye on the share value and start accumulating on major dips.
Georges Yared write about great growth stocks today in Game On Investing











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-09-2008 @ 2:21PM
boris said...
Chipotle has tons of growth ahead of it, this we know, but is the near term growth rate which seems rather modest.. good enough to keep the shares stable and appreciate modestly?
also the Qboda/Taco Bell threats ought to be taken seriously as they might crimp CMG/CMGB growth rates as well.
3-09-2008 @ 2:33PM
boris said...
the CMG.A shares have fallen close to your goal of 90$ down $60 from the $155 high point. regretfully i missed most big runup last year as it became *discovered*. what should i do?
4-05-2008 @ 1:34PM
boris said...
Chipotle has 66 units in the state of Colorado with a population near 4.8 million. this may equate to 4,800 units across the USA. even more interesting to support the 4,800 unit thoery are 1. unit volumes in Colorado are much higher then chain average 2. there is a more competition from clones such as Q'doba. 3. the store count in Colorado continues to uptick annually. these 3 factors strenghten case for >4,800 units nationwide.