As commodity indexes surged to record highs Tuesday, an economist and analyst offered time-tested advice on the macroeconomic and portfolio implications of the market's latest investment obsession of the moment.
Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Tuesday that the steep climbs in soybean, wheat, platinum, coal and gasoline all speak to, for the most part, a secular trend that the world's major economic regions will have to address at some point: rising commodity prices that outstrip the developed and developing worlds' ability to absorb those price increases.
Langan said demand for commodities and raw materials remains above average, even as prices have risen, due to strong emerging market economic growth. Typically, after extended bull runs, either demand recedes or prices drop. Prices, so far, haven't dropped. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index gained as much as 2.8% to 1,441.593, the highest ever, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday. "So unless we've suspended a law of economics, growth in these regions has to slow, at least somewhat," Langan said.
In developing economies, Langan said there is third economic scenario -- but it's likely to be temporary: a period of high inflation and strong economic growth. Government subsidies could prolong the high inflation/strong growth period, "but eventually both businesses and consumers cutback their purchase of the high cost commodity and/or find substitutes." The most likely outcome: demand for the high cost commodity decreases, and economic growth slows, he said.
In developed countries, the current economic condition is more serious, he said. These economies have to deal with high commodity prices amid sluggish economic growth; and in the case of the United States, amid very sluggish economic growth. Here, Langan said, consumers and businesses almost certainly will cutback their purchases, slowing the economy further. "And that doesn't present the most positive picture for commercial activity from a consumer/business demand standpoint," he said. "The last thing you want during sluggish economic times is for businesses to pull back the reins on spending, because it removes needed stimulus from the economy. So if it comes to this, there may have to be a public policy response to address it."
Typical investor: Avoid commodity futures
For the typical investor, the advice is straightforward: resist the temptation to play the commodities futures market, independent stock analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Tuesday. Most investors, Bauer said, do not have the training, experience, temperament, or time to successfully trade commodities. "There are exceptions, but these are rare," he said.
A better way to capitalize on the current bull market in commodities? Bauer said research and identify a company that's well-positioned to profit from a long-term bullish trend, preferably one that's global. For example, demand for copper will remain strong for the immediate years ahead and a strong company in this segment is mining company Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), he said. Another: given expanding agricultural activity in developing markets, fertilizer giant Potash (NYSE: POT) would be worth a review. For the oil and oil services boom, Bauer said offshore drilling contractor Transocean (NYSE: RIG) is worth evaluating. Bauer added that he does not have a rating on or own shares of Freeport, Potash, or Transocean.
"Commodity-based stock plays may not be as exciting as commodity futures, but more than likely, your investment performance will be better," Bauer added.










