There seems to be a general consensus; everybody loves Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX). The problem is when I look at the metrics I do too. Every company would like to have such problems. Yesterday the stock closed up over 4% to $97.94 and was even higher during the day.
Just this morning Morgan Stanley raised earning estimates to $10.95 a share, stating the company stands to benefit from higher copper prices giving FCX an 'Overweight' rating and $125 price target. Last month Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) added Freeport-McMoRan to its Conviction Buy list. There were also favorable stories in Barron's and Smart Money recently.
It makes me uncomfortable to be in the same camp with a multitude of analysts and financial journalists. What is the contrarian position? I suppose that would be if copper prices do not hold up. If copper and gold prices stay where they are the metrics portray this stock as a screaming buy. James Cramer would probably be throwing things by now.
Lets start with the numbers that fly off the page: a return-on-equity of almost 29% (TTM) and a return-on assets about 23% with net profit margins at 18%. The current P/E ratio is 13 (TTM) as of today. It also pays a 1.8% dividend yield
Mining is a capital intensive business and FCX also has a debt hangover from from its acquisition last year of Phelps Dodge which was head quartered in Phoenix, AZ, too. However, FCX is a star performer generating good free cash flow despite its obligations.
From what I have been able to gather Freeport insiders were buyers all the way up to about the $70 range in the first half of 2007. When the stock was near it's high of $120 per share insiders became sellers. I am not a buyer at today's price although I think it is possible that it returns to its past high this year. Today it closed at $99.33, up again.
This one goes on my watch list with an alert at $90 where I will revisit a possible buy in. I just need that value investor margin of safety.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares of FCT.
Before the bell: Futures decline as oil falls sharply; GM's bankruptcy plan approved
Entrepreneur's Journal: Key steps for telesales success
The week in preview: Focus returns to earnings: Alcoa, Chevron, Family Dollar
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-20-2008 @ 6:21PM
mmcgillca said...
excellent research on this one considering slowdown in the economy and investors tendency to move to metals and other alternative investments in these times
2-20-2008 @ 8:37PM
Mr. noitall said...
I agree with you on this one, Sheldon. I like commodities, I think prices will continue to rise. I wouldn't buy FCX now, but it's worth watching. Another commodity to consider is natural gas. It's lagged for quite some time, but seems to be quietly making it's move now. I mentioned before that your pick, PDS, a nice natural gas play, has been a great one so far. You got any more picks like that, lol??