Bond insurer MBIA (NYSE: MBI) said hedge fund founder William Ackman's proposal for a restructuring of U.S. bond insurers is no more credible or viable than his flawed open-source model, The Wall Street Journal reported [subscription required]."Like Mr. Ackman's open-source model, his statements in the media and the barrage of letters he has sent to regulators and the rating agencies -- which contain half truths, innuendo and faulty analysis -- this proposal is simply a continuation of Mr. Ackman's campaign to profit from his short positions and credit default swaps in the bond insurance industry," MBIA said. MBIA added that it is continuing to work with New York State Superintendent of Insurance Eric Dinallo and his advisers to evaluate options for maintaining the highest rating for its policyholders.
Furthermore, MBIA, the nation's largest bond insurer, said it agrees with a spokesman for the New York Insurance Department who said Ackman's proposal would split the company and likely lead to a substantial downgrade for the structured side.
MBIA and bond insurer Ambac (NYSE: ABK) are in the process of re-capitalizing to store assets depleted as subprime mortgage and related asset defaults started to increase in 2007. The two companies need the capital in order to preserve optimal credit ratings -- ratings that are essential to both maintain existing business and to secure new business. Moreover, a lack of new capital would force ratings agencies to downgrade the bond insurers, which economists say would compel several banks to write-down certain assets, further restricting credit, with likely additional, negative consequences for the stock and bond markets.
MBIA's shares gained 12 cents to $12.30, while Ambac fell 15 cents to $9.69 in Thursday morning trading.
Sensing a potential credit market crisis that would affect New York state on a number of fronts, New York Governor Elliot Spitzer last week gave bond insurers three to five days to resolve their problems or face a government-imposed solution. Earlier, Spitzer provided Congressional testimony indicating the same, speaking on behalf of state insurance regulators.
Ackman, who has built up large short positions in MBIA, says he, not MBIA, is acting in the interest of policyholders and has accused MBIA's executives of bias, among other operational mistakes. Economist David H. Wang disagrees, calling Ackman's plan to split MBIA "like throwing gasoline as fire fighters attempt to put out a house fire."
"What's needed is re-capitalization of MBIA, which is occurring, and re-capitalization of Ambac, which I believe will occur in the near future, Wang said. "The sooner MBIA and Ambac are re-capitalized, the sooner the credit markets will begin to return to normalcy."
Bond insurer MBIA has said repeatedly that it has enough capital to handle claims. MBIA has raised more than $2.65 billion in the past two months to keep its AAA rating. Ambac is also said to be evaluating re-capitalization proposals, Wang said.
In addition, Wang said the auction-rate securities market and related bond market "are showing signs of stabilizing" and he cited the Port Authority of New York and Jersey's more-tame 8% interest set on $100 million in bonds issued this week as an indication of the above. Rates had surged to 20% on February 12.
"The bond market is just starting to take its first few baby steps toward recovery, so it behooves regulators and investors to continue on the re-capitalization path for MBIA and Ambac," Wang said. "For reasons of operational stability, and proper market function, it's the most prudent action, in my interpretation











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-21-2008 @ 1:51PM
Michael Lissack said...
How to Fix the Bond Insurer Mess
by Michael Lissack
1) Recognize that Bond Insurers started with municipal bonds and discovered they had excess insurance capacity which could be used in the Structured Finance area
2) Remember the lessons of BIG (Bond Investors Guaranty) which AIG owned and wound-down at a profit
3) Remember that Municipal Borrowers do not NEED Bond insurance
4) Each Bond Insurer should create a new subsidiary (call it W for wind down) -- W would reinsure all EXISTING muni exposure (not mortgages and not student loans) for 100% of the unearned premiums sitting at the parent
5) W is NOT allowed to write any new business
6) Based on 1 & 2 above W should carry AAA ratings with a minimal need for new capital
7) The existing insurer will keep all Structured Finance business and will continue to write new municipal finance business
8) Because the existing insurer is staying whole there is no need to do a mark to market on the insured CDO holdings of investors who would need to do a mark to market if there was a change of control or of structure of the existing insurer
This is a combination of the Buffett and Ackman plans with the twist of the W subsidiary. The advantage is that it preserves the AAA ratings of existing insured muni debt and prevents the litigation/mark to market exposure caused by the Ackman/Spitzer plans to restructure the corporate makeup of the insurers themselves
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