At their investor day, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ: TEVA), the world's largest generic drug maker, said that they expect to double revenues over the next 4 years. Teva predicts that they will grow faster than the generic market. While that is interesting in its own right, their view on the generic market in general is astounding.
"By 2012, Teva expects to have 30% of the U.S. market for generic prescriptions, up from about 20% now. Over 75% of U.S. prescriptions will be filled by a generic by 2012," the company said.
Wow! Three out of every four prescriptions will be filled by a generic in just four years from now. That's huge. If that is indeed the case Big-pharma needs to look out. Where are their profits going to come from? Even the big Bio-tech players are squirming over the possibility of bio-generics.
With rising health care costs, governments, HMO's and individuals are turning to less costly, cheaper priced drugs that have the same quality. This seems like a trend which is going to be hard to stop.
Investors looking to health care as a good long-term play, especially with an aging population, may want to check out the best of breed, Teva.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has a position and owns stock in TEVA and is long the stock. He has no positions in any other stock mentioned as of 2/21/08.
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