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This Bear's hibernation is about to end

Readers of this space know that the investment thesis offered here favors large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and that have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support.

Still, every once in awhile an exception is made, in this case to get-ahead-of the-curve regarding a sector's recovery, and with the aforementioned in mind, Bear Stearns is worth an evaluation.

Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is a leading investment banking, securities, and derivatives trading, clearance, and brokerage firm serving corporations governments, institutional, and individual investors worldwide.

Analysts expect Bear's prime brokerage and asset management businesses to continue to grow, along with adequate-to-good results from its trading division.

Further, there's a sense now among analysts that BSC's mortgage securities and leveraged loan commitments on its balance sheet have been sufficiently written down. That's not to say that there won't be more write-downs or an additional financial bump or two, but the worst appears to be over, at least for Bear.

There's also a sense in analyst circles that Bear's stock price now appropriately discounts the current operating environment. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for BSC are $8.76/$10.17.

The risks? A pronounced U.S. recession and/or a slowdown in global growth would hurt BSC's results.

The First Call mean rating for BSC is: Buy [16 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $110 [high: $165, low: $67].

Stock Analysis: Bear Stearns is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than three years should be rewarded from BSC's shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $53.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

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Last updated: October 07, 2008: 06:20 PM

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