Affinito said last week's fire at an Alon UVA Energy refinery in Big Spring, Texas underscores the latter point. "The refinery's capacity was only 70,000 barrels per day, not 200,000 or 500,000 barrels, but 70,000 barrels, but it pushed oil $5 higher," Affinito said. "I'd call that an oil market with little margin for error."

Another inconvenient truth

Further, OPEC arguments trying to justify a higher oil price because their dollar-based revenue, in real terms, is declining because the U.S. dollar is falling against the world's other major currencies "borders on the nonsensical," Affinito said. The price of oil is about 55% higher than a year ago.

"What OPEC conveniently overlooks when they try to justify oil's high price on this basis is that a higher oil price increases the U.S. trade deficit, which is a major factor in the dollar's decline," Affinito said. "So by taking actions that keep the price of oil high, they're contributing to the depreciation of the dollars they hold, which makes no sense from a purchasing power standpoint."

And neither does it make sense for the well being of the global economy, in Affinito's interpretation. "The way I analyze the market, when oil passed $80, we just tested the limits the price of oil could hit without sending the U.S. economy into a recession and slowing the global economy," Affinito said.

"The relationship between oil's price and economic growth is not perfect, but if OPEC thinks $4 a gallon gasoline will lead to a 'Roaring 20s' economy in the U.S., they're wrong," Affinito said. "Way wrong."