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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Watch for Lowe's full-court press on Home Depot

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it could be part of a strategy to pounce when the economy sagged. Lowe's can take the pain; Home Depot can't.

Maybe Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) (Cramer's Take) sees what we saw this morning: A Home Depot (NYSE: HD) (Cramer's Take) that's a shadow of its former self. Maybe LOW is pulling a Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) and just going out to destroy the competition with lower rates and short-term hits to performance.

Yesterday I was torn between what really drove up the price of Lowe's: the January low point with February showing some improvement, or an overall belief that the early cycle is starting and the economy has bottomed courtesy the Fed rate cuts. The reaction last night to Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) (Cramer's Take) was similar: terrible earnings but hope that things will get better. It's is now well above where it hit its low and it is hard for me to believe that it could go back there.

You couldn't tell which theory was winning out for either Lowe's or Nordstrom because I am sure you had buyers of both plus the ubiquitous short-sellers who lurk everywhere and are prone to cover on a moment's worth of positive price action (as we saw in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) yesterday before a new round of estimate cuts, courtesy special purpose vehicles that some alleged cognoscenti will claim they saw coming).

But today I am thinking about something that Lowe's CEO Bob Niblock told me a year ago. He said that this was going to be a deep one, this domestic recession (domestic because the companies that do business predominantly internationally must be asking themselves every minute, what the heck are these home-related companies doing wrong!) and he was going to use the downturn to change the order of things. Perhaps the new stores, which I remain against, are going up head to head against "bad" Home Depots or of course, "horrible" Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) (Cramer's Take) and are just ripe for the pickings.

When I see the Home Depot -- and I know Sears will be far worse -- I recognize that Niblock strategy outlined to me in a breakout session I crashed at the fabulous Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) (will it still be?) retail conference.

Now, of course, if the early cycle theory wins out, even Home Depot will go up but to me it is clear that the order is being re-ordered and we are going to consider and see Home Depot for what it really is: a once great retailer that is now vulnerable to severe declines courtesy a full court press by Lowe's where Lowe's can take an immense amount of pain -- as can its shareholders -- and Home Depot can't.
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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Last updated: May 17, 2008: 07:10 AM

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