Are you prepared for Wrath of the Lich King? WoW Insider has you covered!

AOL Money & Finance

Martin Wolf: U.S. economic challenges are large but surmountable

The ever-incisive FT columnist and economist Martin Wolf has some good news for investors, who are no doubt weighed down by the cacophony of pessimism permeating the U.S. stock and bond markets these days.

Wolf argues that the U.S. housing recession and accompanying credit market concerns are huge dangers, for the U.S. and for the rest of the world, and a bumpy road is ahead, but the public sector, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, is now coming to the rescue.

Before offering his likely scenario for a return to economic health, Wolf summarizes a worst-case-scenario from Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at New York University and founder of RGE Monitor. (Fair warning: Roubini's scenario represents the bleakest of the bear views, hence it's best not to read it on a day when the Dow is down 300 points, etc.)

While recognizing that Roubini's scenario is plausible, Wolf argues that it's not likely to occur, at least not to the degree Roubini suggests.

Contrary to Roubini, Wolf argues that the problems are formidable, but not beyond the scope of the Fed and the U.S. Congress. In the final analysis, governments resolve financial crises through a combination of monetary and fiscal measures and regulatory reform.

Economic Analysis: Wolf argues that a public policy consensus is emerging to correct economic policy and financial policy errors. That consensus will help right the housing market, but it will take years, and inflation will be higher as a result. Wolf does not specifically state that the U.S. economy will be growing again in 2009, but his argument leans in that direction. Moreover, Wolf does not include the impact a new growth sector would have on the U.S. economy. Even without it, the U.S. has the means to address its economic concerns; with it, a chance to return to above-trend GDP growth.

Related Posts

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-82.2411,550.14
NASDAQ-10.762,315.12
S&P 500-4.961,277.23

Last updated: July 24, 2008: 10:05 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

BloggingStocks Featured Video

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

    AOL Business News

    Latest from BloggingBuyouts

    Sponsored Links

    My Portfolios

    Track your stocks here!

    Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.