Reuters reports that U.S. home prices fell a record 8.9% in 2007. The last time home prices fell anywhere near as much as in 1991 when they lost 2.8% of their value. That was when the current president's father was in office. And he presided over a $200 billion government bailout of the savings and loan industry.
This is an impressive accomplishment for junior. But it does not appear to be the end -- although it may mark the beginning of the end. That's because, as you may have read by now, two million homeowners are expected to foreclose on their homes by the end of 2009. The reason is that variable rate mortgages are resetting to rates higher than many borrowers can afford.
It's too early to tell how much the current president's housing market problems will cost the economy. Although, so far, he is doing a good job of keeping the government from formally bailing out the housing market. That is unless you take into account the skyrocketing stagflation resulting from the Fed's interest rate cuts and the credit crunch.
Maybe the U.S. needs a break from Bushes in power.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-26-2008 @ 1:11PM
Tracy Coenen said...
Oops. I think you left out part of the equation. What was the INCREASE in home prices throughout the rest of his presidency, and therefore, what is the NET increase during his two terms. I don't think that reporting only this drop presents a clear, complete, or accurate picture.
I would also submit that the foreclosures have little to do with our President, and almost everything to do with poor decisions and poor money management by consumers.
2-26-2008 @ 1:33PM
Michael said...
Even better, maybe Babson College needs a break from Peter S. Cohen. What a pile of puerile partison tripe.
2-26-2008 @ 1:44PM
Sheldon L said...
Down 8.9% in 2007, but 2002 thru 2006 up 50% so still a net gain even if Dubya is a dud.
2-26-2008 @ 1:50PM
Bill said...
Sounds like a Cohan political agenda to me. What a joke.
Bill
2-26-2008 @ 1:56PM
David Huston said...
For the record, the 2 million homeowners aren't foreclosing on their homes; their lenders are. The underlying problem for everyone is that, with the assignments from/to various investors, the homeowners often can't even figure out to whom to go for mortgage relief, even if they wanted it. The Bushes may have solved, through massive inadvertance, the homeless crisis which has proven unsolveable until now. Combine the numbers of empty homes with the reduced play on the nation's golf courses, and we may have found the right spots for the poor.
2-26-2008 @ 2:37PM
Kem said...
Look at all the crap the endangered homeowner's have: Big plasma TV's, eat out, drive big, gas guzzling SUV's, new clothes every week, $1200 puppy, no budget. But, Wah, wah, wah, bail me out, wah, wah, wah...I spend money on everything but to pay my bills....you other people that pay, ha ha, you the suckers...wah, wah, I'm sick, wah wah, I need disability, wah, wah, wah, hey this crying works! So, I'll wah, wah, wah somemore....
2-26-2008 @ 4:43PM
guerro said...
This is precisely why those people who effed up and bought too much house on an intrest only ARM can't qualify to refinance at almost record low interest rates. They are mortgaged to the hilt on Cars, SUVs, quads, trailer, powerstroke diesel to pull the trailer, 5 kids, cook at home? whats that ?, credit cards full.
2-26-2008 @ 3:14PM
george smith said...
another liberal media type who thinks people cant think for themselves. Where do these people come from!!!
2-26-2008 @ 3:28PM
John said...
The Federal Reserve elected him, then they subsidized his economic recovery.
Now they're madly trying to figure out how to elect McCain. Cut cut cut - all the way to election day.
Then what?
2-26-2008 @ 3:30PM
VIC POWERS said...
what a crock of tail wagging the dog ... prices fall ONE YEAR OUT OF EIGHT and you want him crucified!! ... no one heard you complaining when r.e. prices were climbing 10-25% a year did they? you couldn't hold his jockstrap!!! he added more jobs during his presidency than clinton did, fought terrorism right here, took the war to them, built a solid economy, kept rates low, grew the gnp like a weed and STILL you try to tear him down...
2-26-2008 @ 4:38PM
Morse said...
I'm not a knee-jerk anti-Bush type, but the predatory lending that has developed during this Administration (admittedly itself initiated during the worst excesses of the Clinton administration) has been horrendous. The interest rates on all kinds of loans in the USA are sky-high. Homes, credit cards, even educational loans are ridiculous-- nowhere in Europe do you see anything remotely on this scale, US banks would be charged with usury.
Yet here it just gets worse and worse. In fact, after that idiotic "bankruptcy bill" a few years back, companies are able to royally foul up and wash their debts away scot-free, whereas hard-pressed individuals are even harder-pressed if some plastered fool rear-ends their car and they wind up with debts.
This is why we get the spectacles of Enron, or of incompetent corporate executives who are rewarded with $100 million for running their companies into the ground!
And again, no need to be partisan here-- Bill Clinton contributed a lot to this, just as George W. Bush did. It's corruption all around, with the biggest corporations basically buying our power structure.
It's gotten so awful that a lot of my old colleagues, especially those working in professional and technical fields, have thrown up their hands and emigrated from the USA. Destinations are all over the map, though Germany and Switzerland seem to be especially big.
(Hint, hint: If you have an engineering or science degree, you might want to brush up on those German language textbooks fast, they might come in handy!)
Of about a dozen of the smartest people I knew back in college, almost half have either emigrated or are planning to. A couple have gone to Germany, with its still-strong high-tech sector, low cost-of-living in the east plus the value-added bonus of a paycheck in Euros. One to Switzerland. One to France, one who can speak to Dutch went to the Netherlands, one even to Italy.
IOW, people are voting with their feet these days. And as the dollar continues to plummet, I'd expect this process to accelerate even further.
2-26-2008 @ 4:52PM
Tracy Coenen said...
Morse wrote:
"The interest rates on all kinds of loans in the USA are sky-high."
I've got a suggestion for anyone who objects: don't borrow any money. Only spend what you earn. No loans. No credit cards. Just cash, baby.
Remember that loans, mortgages, and credit cards are all choices.
2-26-2008 @ 8:54PM
Mr. noitall said...
Peter! It's only February and your brain is mal-functioning already? I expect you to act this way around September or October, but now?? If you are starting to break down this early in the year, I'm afraid you will be too far gone by November. Please see your doctor and ask him to triple your medication, we wouldn't want to lose you.
2-26-2008 @ 9:05PM
Sam said...
Yes I have to agree, I'm tired of reading Peter Cohan's blatant partisan posts. I come to this blog to read about stocks, not left-wing propaganda. If I want to read about politics, I'll go to realclearpolitics or something.