Is GE trading above its breakup value?

Last July I met with General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) CFO Keith Sherin to discuss GE's performance and prospects. After an extensive analysis, I concluded that GE was not grossly undervalued in the stock market relative to my estimate of the breakup value of its component parts. Seven months later, I've reached a different conclusion -- if one were to break up GE now, its pieces would fetch less than its current market value.

In the last seven months, GE's market capitalization has fallen 15% from $399 billion to $339 billion. But GE made more money than I thought it would. When I estimated how much profit its business units would earn for 2007 in July, I had half a year's segment profit and I guessed that the year's total would be $21.6 billion. But the actual 2007 segment profit total was $24.1 billion -- which I calculated by assuming each segment paid a 17% tax rate on its profit.

Meanwhile the market has decided to assign lower values to GE's various businesses. I calculated that the weighted average Price/Earnings (PE) ratio of GE's business last July was 19.92 and now it's down to 17.62. This leads me to a range of breakup values for GE which are between 11.1% and 1.5% less below GE's current market capitalization. At the high end, I estimated that GE's businesses could be worth $334 billion and at the low end -- $301.3 billion. How did I get there?