Last July I met with General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) CFO Keith Sherin to discuss GE's performance and prospects. After an extensive analysis, I concluded that GE was not grossly undervalued in the stock market relative to my estimate of the breakup value of its component parts. Seven months later, I've reached a different conclusion -- if one were to break up GE now, its pieces would fetch less than its current market value.
In the last seven months, GE's market capitalization has fallen 15% from $399 billion to $339 billion. But GE made more money than I thought it would. When I estimated how much profit its business units would earn for 2007 in July, I had half a year's segment profit and I guessed that the year's total would be $21.6 billion. But the actual 2007 segment profit total was $24.1 billion -- which I calculated by assuming each segment paid a 17% tax rate on its profit.
Meanwhile the market has decided to assign lower values to GE's various businesses. I calculated that the weighted average Price/Earnings (PE) ratio of GE's business last July was 19.92 and now it's down to 17.62. This leads me to a range of breakup values for GE which are between 11.1% and 1.5% less below GE's current market capitalization. At the high end, I estimated that GE's businesses could be worth $334 billion and at the low end -- $301.3 billion. How did I get there?
Follow the links below to view my estimates for the value of GE's six business segments:
- Infrastructure: $153.7 billion
- Commercial Finance: $33.4 billion to $49.8 billion
- GE Money: $46.0 billion to $48.9 billion
- Healthcare: $18.5 billion to $23 billion
- NBC Universal: $36.5 billion to $42.5 billion
- Industrial: $13.1 billion to $16.1 billion
When I looked at this analysis in July, I thought GE was fairly valued and it lost 15% of its value. I am wondering whether this analysis suggests it could be slightly overvalued, and thus likely to decline. To decide that, also consider GE's Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio. At 1.47 on a P/E of 15.7 with earnings growth of 11% to $2.69 in 2009, this PEG ratio flashes a modest caution sign.
Either way, I am leaning towards thinking that GE could be slightly over-valued at this price.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-06-2008 @ 1:00AM
Phil G said...
GIGO: What do you expect when you attempt to value companies based on PE. In an oversold undervalued market you will be thinking th company is overvalued in a bubble market you may think the company is undervalued.
You wrote:
... in July, I thought GE was fairly valued and it lost 15% of its value. ... I guessed that the year's total would be $21.6 billion. But the actual 2007 segment profit total was $24.1 billion
I am (now) wondering it could be slightly overvalued.
...
Stupid non Logic as is your method of tryng to value a company based on PE ratios at some point in time (epecially during a bubble or bust)