I don't normally watch the stock of Harley Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG). Lately though, I've had a look at how it's doing and things look pretty ugly right about now. Value investors might be tempted to buy in or to build on an existing position at this time, and that may be a good choice, but as far as a seasonal investment, this year HOG may be scheduled for intake to the slaughter house. In the face of a worsening economy and a kaleidoscope of consumer credit woes, that big bike maker probably won't be faring so well. It's my opinion that domestically, Harley Davidson is going to become it's own largest competitor, at least in the near term. For the last 20 years, buying a Harley has been a purchase of status far more than an expenditure of need. As much as 85% of the Harley Davidson fleet has been purchased by pleasure riders rather than commuters or hard-core biker types. This reality puts those classy machines into the realm of consumer toys rather than consumer needs. Add to this the fact that Harley riders are getting older. They say: If you won't be able to pick up your bike when you lay it down, it's time to give up the ride.
My point here is that more and more Harley Davidson motorcycles are entering the secondary phase of their life cycles. First phase owners are beginning to sell off their bikes. I noticed the increase of used Harleys for sale beginning two years ago, and last year I noticed the start of a very slight decline in asking prices. This does spell good news if you're in the market for one, and if that's the case, I envy you. However, this signals tougher marketing domestically for that classic American icon, hence the Harley Davidson push into India and China.
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Reader Comments (Page 12 of 12)
3-03-2008 @ 12:47PM
Evol-Twin said...
To lilcanoli, glad you thought I was funny. It's nice to see someone has a sense of humor. Thanks for proving me right on all fronts. You do sound educated and wealthy so you fall into the second part of my theory of who rides Harleys, white trash and wealthy people who want to pretend they are white trash.As far as breaking down in my "yuppie car" in front of a biker bar first I ride Ducati's and I tend to see more Harley's broke down on the side of the road calling their wife's, oh sorry, "old lady" as Harley riders call them to come pick them up "again" in their pick up truck. And where else would you find Harley riders but in a bar getting their beer belly's up to Harley snuff then go out on a ride drunk without a helmet. Also I don't say "white trash" like it's a bad thing. Who else is going to dig ditches or get me my burrito at Taco Bell. Who's daughters are going to give my buddies and I our lap dances at our local gentlemens club.Who is going to entertain me when watching "Cops" in all their shirtless glory and if they happen to have a shirt on it's usually a Harley shirt, go figure! This country was founded and the backs of white trash so god bless them. I also find it curious that the bloggers on this site suggest that people who don't ride Harleys are "gay". So let me get this straight,at the 100th anniversary party the HEADLINER was none other than Sir Elton John, LOL. I'm sure George Michael was there to sing his traditional duet with Sir Elton but once he started to roam the bathroom stalls and saw all of these Harley riders dressed in leather chaps and fringed leather looking like one one of the members of the Village People he must of lost his friggin mind!! Old Willie G. is truly in touch with his customers. He could of booked Lynyrd Skynyrd or Ted Nugent but he wanted to give the people what they want.I guess Skynyrd and Ted must of been tied up on the State Fair circuit. Hell maybe Willie G. was smarter than I thought, he was probably thinking how am I going to get this drunken, crystal methed up crowd to go home while they are slurring the lyrics to Freebird all night long? Hell, I will get a gay man to headline so that I don't have to pay overtime to the roadies and event crew and I can hop on my private jet and get my old, kidney damaged body from riding Harleys home. Also how come Harley riders assume that the only other bike out on the road is "jap crap". I have to assume that the reason that Harley riders don't wear helmets is because they won't fit over their blinders,or maybe they don't want to mess their mullets up. Let's not forget the amazing technology coming out of Germany ( BMW, KTM ) the historic bikes from England ( Truimph, Norton ) and last but not least the amazing exotica from Italy from my beloved Ducati to MV Agusta, Benelli but all Harley riders see is "jap crap". Maybe you Harley guys should pull up your skull and flame bandana up an inch, don't worry your receding hair line (if any) won't show. And how come you Harley riders don't wave back to us non-Harley riders, are you that ashamed of being on Edsel technology or are you afraid that something may fall of if you take your hand off your bike? So just remember.....potato potato potato misfire,potato potato misfire..........................AND GET ER DUN!!!
3-03-2008 @ 6:13PM
GWNana said...
"a 20 year old is not going to lift a downed bike alone."
They can't? Excuse me, I need to correct you. I am a 49 year old woman who can lift my Goldwing, which weighs as much or more than any Harley out there. And believe me, I am not some muscle bound biker chick. Oh, but I forgot, I'm not a "true biker", even though I ride about 12-15,000 miles a year. Try taking an MSF course and learn how to pick your bike up by yourself!
3-04-2008 @ 9:24AM
07Warrior said...
I didn't even know HD made bikes. I thought they only made beef jerkey, toilet seats, and tasles, J/K.
My roommate and I both decided to buy new bikes last year. He got an 07 Dyna Street Bob and I got an 07 yamaha warrior. He paid 1.5x the price for his bike than I did mine. All I can say is that HD bikes are very anemic in the handling and performance department. After riding my bike for a few weeks I decided to take his for a ride. I thought the break was stuck it was such a slug. It also handled like a pregnant yak in comparison to my yamaha. It has already been in the shop twice with only 4000 miles on it. I can tell you that it is a beautiful bike though.
3-05-2008 @ 2:43AM
Pagan Dan said...
Really can't believe this 'discussion' is still dragging on.
Come on people, ride what you like and love for whatever reason, just ride.
There are people who won't drive anything but Fords or Chevys, or ride Harleys, fine, but you're missing out on something different, maybe better, maybe not but you will remain ignorant if you don't try.
Harley charges a premium price for old technology, for example, counter balancers on engines. A 'new' feature on Harleys a couple of years ago, a standard on Jap bikes for some 20 years now.
The BMW boxer motor has been around for more than 65 years, check out the suspension developments they have continued to improvment on.
Harley has a new model for '08 called the Cross Bones, a bobtail design with a spring bicycle seat and springer front suspension and ape hanger bars. Looks nice but is one of the worst handling designs from the earley days of motorcycles, like earley 1900's and all for around twenty thousand big ones out the door. Looks cool though.
No thank you.
Test ride a Yamaha Raider, Honda VTX 1800, Kawasaki Meanstreak, Victory Hammer. All but the Victories are thousands of dollors less and will put a smile on your face and out run, handle and last just as long as any Harley, no doubt about it.
Try this......, buy a VTX or Meanstreak for around twelve thousand and give that extra eight grand you saved on a Hardley to the Pediatric Brain Tumor fund. Now that will put a smile on your face.
And one more thing, I will wave as we pass on the road or stop to help a stuck rider, don't make a dam what your riding.
Shut your mouth and hang on.
3-07-2008 @ 6:20AM
sssteve said...
All I could say is save your money. If you want a HD bike, wait a year or two. They are just not worth the price. Look in the paper and buy used if you "have" to have one. The dealer is not the place to go to save money.
3-11-2008 @ 6:51PM
sew said...
IF YOU DONT LIKE HARLEY FEEL FREE TO RIDE JAP CRAP. IF YOU RIDE A JAP RIP OFF ITS BECAUSE YOU CANT AFFORD THE REAL AMERICAN H-D.
3-13-2008 @ 9:16AM
fewjr said...
I just sold my Yamaha of 8 years. I bought it new and got 50% back. Bought a HD for about 20% less than the previous owner paid. That's reason #1 for buying the HD - RESALE! Now that I've ridden my 1st HD I can truly say it is the best ride, handles great with power out the ass. Prejudice? No-surprised! I really didn't expect to get so much back out of it - riding-wise. It's also easier to customize and hi-per. I'm middle class, spent my whole life trying to afford a HD and don't consider myself white trash or the guys I ride with. And I started riding in 1972 so I'm not the "Rubbie" (poser) you talk about. We're all different, but we all still ride - that's the important thing. And if you don't ride - you don't count - just like voting - you idiot.
3-15-2008 @ 6:16PM
gary said...
i have rode harley`s most of my adult life..i ride a road king classic and my wife rides a street glide..i also did track time on my triumph sport bike ..the truth is that harleys are a status symbol..years ago the hard core bikers (1%ers)saw a commerical that the nicest people ride a honda ..the word went out no jap bikes ..now my friend was a president of a well know club at the time ..he was pissed that he had to sell his kawasaki for a harley .in those days the harleys were leaking oil on the dealer floor ..people want to be bad asses ..so they stated buying harleys ..i remember in the 90`s my friend bought a fatboy for 24,000 bucks ..the dealers were raping the people and the bigger the shortage of new bikes the more people wanted them..status symbol..i think the biggest growth was after the hog chapters were formed.. yuppies a group toride with and a patch ,instant bad asses.. and a cash cow for the dealers ..i myself was a member of staten island hog chapter for 9 years ..when bikes started not selling the dealer put pressure on the hog director to push for sales ..the dealer works out of a house ..so you know there was bad service , no parts and bikes left out in the rain..people have long memories of being overcharged and lied to ..people were going to other dealers to buy there harleys..i got word that the dealer was pissed at people that serviced there own bikes like me ..hey $600.00for a 10,000 miles sevice ..no thanks i`ll do it myself for 20 bucks ..i got a great deal from another dealer on a leftover street glide for my wife ..15,000..well the dealer saw a picture of my wife riding her new bike in the hog newsletter he asked who that was .got pissed and said her husband does his own work and buy`s a bike from a different dealer..well the outcome was i got a letter stating i was kicked out of the chapter after nine years ..i called harley they said basicly tough ..so now the dealer are turning on each other and there hog members ..i say harley will be sold just like they did before ..notice the brembro brakes and rotac motor in the buel ..is bombardier ready to take over the i think so ..wow a canadian harley i love it ..and i think we would have a better bike ..
3-22-2008 @ 1:17PM
Kimry said...
to lilcanoli, if you believe that laying down your bike is a necccesity, you clearly are not a real biker. You stay with the bike and maintain control, dropping your bike is by definition a crash. it cracks me up how everyone thinks that harley is a club that only they can belong to. Got news people, Harley is a business. And there are no "real " or fake bikers. Some people ride alot, some a little, and all for their own reasons. If you don't like the next guy's reason for buying on , GET OVER IT!
3-30-2008 @ 7:58PM
SailorRailer said...
I've been riding since I was 15 years old. I've had Hondas, Yamahas, Kawasakis, Suzukis, a BSA and now a Harley Sportster. Each and every bike was fun to ride and gave me "miles of smiles" as I traveled both on and off road.
Guess I'm the kind of guy who could care less what BRAND of bike you decide to ride. In my humble opinion, it's more important just getting out on two wheels and enjoying the open rode and the feeling of motorcycling.
PS I'll "wave" to you as we pass each other, too.
4-01-2008 @ 7:35PM
jefferson said...
I have been riding harleys for a couple of years now. I have grown fond of riding puting many miles on them in not so long periods of time(IBA) In the last few months I bought a very expensive HD and have become diselusioned with the motor company. 1st a gasket leak, then over heating. Moco admits nothing and apears to do nothing about an obvious problem. They need to earn some respect from some of us. Mabe the stock price will move back to the 50's and 60's.
4-18-2008 @ 2:49AM
steve said...
just more foreign junk buy american