I don't normally watch the stock of Harley Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG). Lately though, I've had a look at how it's doing and things look pretty ugly right about now. Value investors might be tempted to buy in or to build on an existing position at this time, and that may be a good choice, but as far as a seasonal investment, this year HOG may be scheduled for intake to the slaughter house. In the face of a worsening economy and a kaleidoscope of consumer credit woes, that big bike maker probably won't be faring so well. It's my opinion that domestically, Harley Davidson is going to become it's own largest competitor, at least in the near term. For the last 20 years, buying a Harley has been a purchase of status far more than an expenditure of need. As much as 85% of the Harley Davidson fleet has been purchased by pleasure riders rather than commuters or hard-core biker types. This reality puts those classy machines into the realm of consumer toys rather than consumer needs. Add to this the fact that Harley riders are getting older. They say: If you won't be able to pick up your bike when you lay it down, it's time to give up the ride.
My point here is that more and more Harley Davidson motorcycles are entering the secondary phase of their life cycles. First phase owners are beginning to sell off their bikes. I noticed the increase of used Harleys for sale beginning two years ago, and last year I noticed the start of a very slight decline in asking prices. This does spell good news if you're in the market for one, and if that's the case, I envy you. However, this signals tougher marketing domestically for that classic American icon, hence the Harley Davidson push into India and China.
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Reader Comments (Page 5 of 12)
2-29-2008 @ 4:53PM
jason said...
If you don't ride a Harley then don't try to cut me off passing someone.If I see you coming I will cause you to wreck.These's idiots that ride those sport bikes don't need to be on the road.I have no respect for them
2-29-2008 @ 5:12PM
steve/buzzy said...
I ride a 97 1200c never had a problem with this bike....some of my former associates have purchased new 08's including some die hard jap fans...say what you want but they still hold their value...try trading jap plastic and see what you get
2-29-2008 @ 4:58PM
john joy said...
Certainly H-D sales are slowing down after decades of fantastic growth that any corporation in any industry would envy,but this is a function of the economy and not that there is something wrong with H-D.I love motorcycles and currently own six,3 H-D and 3 Kawasaki.I enjoy riding and the people I have met because of my addiction to motorcycling.It has enriched my life.
2-29-2008 @ 4:59PM
Sandy said...
You do not need to have tons of muscles or lots of friends to pick up a downed bike. I learned how to pick up a "loaded" Harley, and I weigh 120 lbs
2-29-2008 @ 4:59PM
db said...
Ride A Harley ride the best ride A mile walk the rest. Two years ago a couple friends of mine rode their Harleys to motorcycle weekend in Loudon N.H. neither one of them made it both of their fairly new Harleys broke down and had to be towed what passed them while their bikes were being towed? dependable Japanese bikes.
2-29-2008 @ 4:59PM
jules said...
Those that say they "hate" Harleys or that they "don't like " the company. has not been on a Harley or is too cheap to buy one. Leave my motorcycle alone and let me ride in peace.
2-29-2008 @ 5:09PM
blahblahblah said...
harleys getting cheaper. i remember in the70's sportsters were around $3000..what is the price now? since bikes are getting cheaper i guess that means more people are going to grunge down and try to look like the gates of hell. who says you have to grunge down to be a biker? one person said if you drop your bike you shouldn't have one. everyone sooner or later will drop it. thats one more reason you idiots should wear helmets. the smart kids on rice rockets do.
2-29-2008 @ 5:03PM
Karine said...
2-29-2008 @ 2:23PM
Bob Wong said...
Love my Sprotster!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
=============================
LOL does your "Sprotster!!!" go Pffffffffffffft? Buddy if you cannot spell it you should not ride it ....
2-29-2008 @ 5:03PM
PAT said...
H-D and their dealers have overpriced for years. Nice bikes but the real American biker has to take out a second mortgage to pay for them...I'll take my Kawasaki Vulcan (paid in cash) and enjoy my peace of mind. Oh yeah, the "resale"..... I would rather keep the thousands of dollars I saved by buying not getting a Harley in my "pocket" instead of having HD/dealers hold on to it for me..........
2-29-2008 @ 5:10PM
steve/buzzy said...
just reading thru some comments...2,000 dollar maintenance plan? didn't get one of those...do you have sucker in neon on your forehead???? again 97 1200 sporty no problems yet...plastic junky
2-29-2008 @ 5:06PM
Nickabod said...
I`ve ridden Harleys since 1985 and all I can say is that I like the bikes but I hate the company. Except down at the dealer level, customer service and satisfaction is lacking. Ask any Harley rider that`s had an early model evolution sportster with the exploding clutch-alternator magnets and you`ll know. A blatant design defect that Harley has never owned up to and if it does go bad the new clutch shell is around five hundred dollars to replace. And that`s just the part itself. I think I`m going to make my next purchase a classic british bike
2-29-2008 @ 5:07PM
blkharleyryda said...
Harley is a great bike. and i have no problem with
other brands some are nice like kowasiki meanstreek, I ride HD Street bob my pal rides The meanstreek .And hey Harley's are for anyony That want's or can aford them.
2-29-2008 @ 5:08PM
ultraHDride said...
If Harleys are so bad as what some of you people say then tell me why just about every metric company is out there building Harley look-a-likes , why because people want a Harley they want the look and thats all they get but not the pride
people like that like putting more money in other country pockets then the one they live in ,that the sad partand for what Ann #35 said i counldn't agree more Thank you for writing that news papers should print it for all to know
2-29-2008 @ 5:09PM
james drury said...
What I read in the article is that Harley will competing with itself due to the large number of low milage bikes that are available. If you review the number of used bikes (Harley & Metric) available on the web you may be stunned. Any Model, any Color, any Miles. If you want one, why buy new? The other issue is that the easy credit that "was" availabile has created a market where the seller has a bike that he/she is upsidedown on. Review asking prices, then go to NADA.com to check the current pricing on used bikes. These bikes may be repo'd with Harley Credit and other Mfg. Credit holding the bike. These bikes go to dealer only auctions. Net, net, if you want one, shop carefully. A good retail "deal" we be available.
2-29-2008 @ 5:09PM
steve/buzzy said...
might as well keep them thousands...when the bike (jap) is a year old you will be lucky to get half what you paid for it(this has happened to a couple of people I ride with....)and just so you know I am a big yamaha fan....(ride a sporty)
2-29-2008 @ 5:29PM
Kelly said...
Evol-Twin... that was %^%^$# funny...potato..potato...potato Misfire.... I had to say it to get it...ROFLMAO
2-29-2008 @ 5:10PM
blahblahblah said...
dave said plastic is for toys. ride an american bike. guess what? the parts are manufactered overseas. all parts are made overseas.some of the bike has to be put together in the states tho. if you want an american made go for a custom. you decide what goes on it.
2-29-2008 @ 5:43PM
youngroberta said...
Well, we're all guilty of purchasing China/Japanese made goods whether it's at Walmart or your local car/motorcycle dealer. HD started sliding a few years back when their retail financing arm got snookered on people not being able to make their payments. So they raised prices to compensate. Now with the dollar worth around 10c who can afford them after paying the rent and food. I expect to see a huge shake-out in the near future. Don't quit your job.
2-29-2008 @ 5:13PM
hector said...
i am a lifelong motorcycle guy bee riding over 30 years.HD better get on the ball.That 1903 technology plus over 65 dollars an hour is very impractical for the average rider.
2-29-2008 @ 5:14PM
Shirley said...
My 83 year old husband still rides his 1995 Harley Sportster and wouldn't trade it for a dozen of those Harley wannabe's.