BloggingStocks

Not all agriculture stocks are created equal

Posted Feb 28th 2008 10:22AM by Timothy Sykes
Filed under: Bad news, Agriculture, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT)

All it takes is some news to make you realize the risk involved in smallcap investing. That news came in the form of a horrific earnings report last night from Origin Agritech (NASDAQ: SEED), showing revenues and margins decreasing along with guidance that was more than 50% below the estimates of the one analyst that covers the company.

I often advise against trusting any company whatsoever, but it's rare that one lets investors down so greatly. I had no position in the stock, but along with Converted Organics (NASDAQ: COIN) and Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN), I profiled Origin back in January as an up and coming agriculture stock. Since then, two of those three stocks have broken out to new highs in a similar fashion to this hot sector's leaders like Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT), Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), Monsanto (NYSE: MON) and Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU).

Performance aside, those billion dollar behemoths are established companies, with global investors and brands, while these new kids on the block are the exact opposite. Plagued by having few products, fund raising problems and debt issues, this 50% shortfall exemplifies just one of the many issues with which small-cap companies struggle. I mean they are really fighting for lives! And that's why they are priced the way they are and derided by Wall Street.

Mind you, I got wealthy by speculating in these kinds of speculative stocks because without solid business fundamentals, their price action is determined by investors' fear and greed, two qualities that are much easier to decipher. But I write this to help you understand these kinds of speculative stocks should never be considered safe investments. Whether Origin closes today down 15%, 20% or 40%, it's getting crushed -- deservedly so -- and this is the risk with any small cap company whatsoever, no matter if it's in a hot sector.

Timothy Sykes writes the blog timothysykes.com, is a former hedge fund manager, star of the TV show Wall Street Warriors and author of the book, An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund

Tags: agrium, agu, coin, converted organics, ConvertedOrganics, featured, mon, monsanto, mos, mosaic, origin agritech, OriginAgritech, pot, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, PotashCorp.OfSaskatchewan, seed, tim sykes, TimSykes, titan machinery, TitanMachinery, titn

All contents copyright © 2003-2008, Weblogs, Inc. All rights reserved

BloggingStocks is a member of the Weblogs, Inc. Network. Privacy Policy, Terms of Service, Notify AOL