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What is OPEC to do?

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With the recent surge in oil prices, many of you out there may be hoping to see OPEC come in and cool the market with a production increase, but that is far from likely to occur. In fact, OPEC now finds itself in a pretty unusual position (wsj.com subscription required), with the likely outcome being that the group will decide to do nothing at all.

So what exactly is OPEC looking at? The most obvious factor that the group must contend with is all time highs in oil, and a current cost per barrel of $102.50. For so long we kept wondering if / when we would be seeing $100 oil, and that time has come, and now it seems like oil has formed a pretty solid base of support above the psychological $100 barrier. This would typically lead you to believe that OPEC would come in and lift production in order to cool off prices.

But, on the other hand, OPEC also has to contend with a weakening dollar, fears over a possible recession, and rising inventories in America. All three of these, by themselves alone, would be enough to put pressure on OPEC to actually look at tightening its supplies. The group definitely doesn't want to see a recession spread across America and put a serious crimp in the nation's appetite for oil.


Up until the past few weeks we were getting signals from OPEC that we would be seeing some cuts coming in the near future, but now I believe it to be highly doubtful that any cuts are coming in the next several months. Politically it just would not look right to see the group lower its output will prices are at all-time highs. But then again, OPEC typically does what OPEC wants to do.

OPEC has argued that the recent surge in prices has nothing to do with fundamentals. They point to the rising inventories in America as evidence that demand is not up to the levels that would justify opening up the pumps a little more. In fact, they have estimated that demand this year will fall 400,000 barrels a day under that of 2007.

So what will OPEC ultimately decide to focus on? Should it look at the current record high prices and look to put some oil into the market? Or can we expect it to pay more attention to the inventory levels in the U.S.? In the end, I think that OPEC will lean more towards cutting back supplies to prevent over saturating the market in the event of a recession down the road, but for now, I wouldn't expect to see any changes coming out of the group.

What are your thoughts? Does OPEC need to step in a lift its quotas in order to cool prices down, or should they stand by and let the market figure it out for itself for the time being? What would you do in their shoes?

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 12:57 PM

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