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Comfort Zone Investing: Sparkles of light in the gloom

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Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the recently released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

It's not all bad out there. Some stocks are doing much better with individual results carrying them higher. Others are being carried by a sea change in the industry. Here are the news and stocks that provide some of the light in the current darkness.

(please note, this column was written Wednesday, Feb. 27).

On Monday, the rumor that started the rally on Friday continued. Several banks were going to form a consortium to save the insurance company AMBAC. On top of that there was a renewed bid for Take Two by Electronics Arts, this time with a higher price tag. Take Two rejected the new offer, but it sparked a rally. The market went up over 100 points. That was on top of the almost 100 point rally from last session, one that saw a 200 point turnaround in an hour.

On Tuesday, data showed housing prices might be leveling off, even though some areas of the country are still feeling pressure. The Miami area reported the worst decline, down 18% from last year. Housing stocks took off on the news. KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), two ends of the housing market, were up over 6% on the day. On Wednesday TOL announced its losses, and the stock continued higher.

Of course, there was lots of bad news as well. Consumer Confidence was at 75, the lowest reading since the Iraq War began in 2003, and with that exception, the lowest reading in 15 years. Producer Prices (wholesale prices) were up 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Excluding energy and food prices, they were up .4%, twice what was expected. That puts the Fed in a quandary. If inflation gets too strong, it will have to raise interest rates, just as the consumer is already being hit with higher prices on everything else. Higher rates would stop any housing recovery dead. On Wednesday, Fed Chief Bernanke said he was all for lowering interest rates as long as inflation is under control.

The ray of hope in all of this is that in spite of the bad news and economic difficulties consumers are enduring now, investors are grasping quickly onto good news and letting bad news go. They're looking forward (as they always do) and have renewed expectations that the housing market will, in fact, recover, and maybe sooner rather than later. However, if interest rates get hiked, that optimism will disappear. For the moment, it's coming through.

To further bolster the housing market, the Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (I'm not making this up) gave approval for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy jumbo mortgages. That will put new money into a sector of the market (one that TOL in particular is in) that previously didn't have access to Federal money.

Other good news: IBM (NYSE: IBM) announced another major buyback of stock, $15 billion worth. That's on top of a similar repurchase they've recently completed. Earnings are higher for Big Blue, thanks to the global aspect of its business. Management also raised its guidance for earnings for 2008 based on how well business is doing. Since it's still a force in the tech world, investors took these announcements as a reason for confidence in the future, at least in the tech industry.

Other stocks that are starting to get back in favor: the financials, and banks in particular. Bank stocks were downgraded again in the last few days by several brokerage firms. One of them suggested that Citigroup (NYSE: C) might trade as low as $16 before all write-offs are written off. The stock faltered for a little but is now trading higher, above where it was when the analyst's report came out.

It's still anybody's guess how the housing and financial stocks will fare as more bad news comes out. If interest rates go higher, that will hurt both of them. But investors don't believe that will happen, or if they do, they're thinking both industries will cope with it. We may be very near the bottom for housing prices, at least for some parts of the country. While prices have gone down dramatically in some areas, there is a sense that many of those sectors are beginning to see stabilization. First comes stabilization, then comes higher prices.

It isn't all bad news out there. You just need to find those sparkles of light that are doing well in spite of the tough times, or will be within a few months.

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 01:04 AM

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