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A takeover at E*Trade? Don't bet on it.

E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) is naming its chairman, former JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) vice-chairman Donald Layton, to be the company's new CEO.

The stock was trading up more than 5% on the news earlier, probably because of speculation of a possible sale. The Wall Street Journal reported [subscription required] that "E*Trade and Citadel have discussed the possibility of trying to find a buyer for the home-equity portfolio, which would lift a tremendous burden off E*Trade and could pave the way for a sale of the entire company, according to people familiar with the matter."

But Mr. Layton told the Journal that selling the home-equity portfolio is not an option right now.

I think investors should, as always, be extremely cautious about buying shares in the company on takeover speculation. E*Trade's woes -- and declining share price -- are hardly an unknown entity given its status as a poster child of subprime stupidity. The fact that Ameritrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) and other well-capitalized competitors, which had expressed interest in acquiring E*Trade before its precipitous decline in value aren't stepping up with an offer, tells me all I need to know: there's really no reason to think a deal is coming any time soon.

BloggingStocks' Doug McIntyre wrote earlier today that "Citadel may want to sell the discount brokerage firm but that would cause potential problems with other E*Trade investors. What would be left over is a company with a large pool of mortgages which are still falling in value. Getting a return on the discount brokerage operation might be a good idea on paper but separating it from the balance of the company is no "slam dunk". Shareholders don't want to be left holding that mortgage bag."

Unless you like E*Trade's future as a stand-alone company, I'd give this stock wide berth.

In addition, the hopelessly transparent token insider buying at the company gives me concern that the company's brass is more interested in playing the PR game than fixing the mess.

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 10:12 AM

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